Category: Insight

24 Mar 2017

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Wells Fargo, flows week to date were -$0.9 billion and year to date flows stand at -$3.3 billion. New issuance for the week was $9.2 billion and year to date HY is at $75.4 billion.

(CNBC) Housing Market is Quite Strong Across the United States

  • Consumer sentiment in both the economy and the housing market is rising and that is translating into strong demand from homebuyers. The trouble is, the supply of homes for sale is incredibly weak and getting weaker. What is for sale is selling fast.
  • The typical home that sold last month went under contract in 60 days, eight days faster than one year ago, according to a new report from Redfin, a real estate brokerage. Nearly 15 percent of all homes listed for sale in February were off the market within two weeks, up from 11.7 percent last year. This is the fastest February market Redfin has recorded since it began tracking in 2010.

(Business Wire) B&G Foods Announces CFO Resigns to Pursue Other Opportunities

  • Thomas P. Crimmins, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, has resigned to pursue other opportunities. Mr. Crimmins’ decision was not the result of any dispute or disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the Company’s accounting practices or financial statements.
  • The Company has initiated a search for a new Chief Financial Officer and until one is appointed, Amy Chiovari, currently the Company’s Corporate Controller, will serve as Interim Chief Financial Officer.
  • “On behalf of our entire team, I want to thank Tom for his contributions to B&G Foods’ success over the past two years and wish him continued success in his future endeavors,” said Robert C. Cantwell, President and Chief Executive Officer of B&G Foods. “I am also pleased to report Amy Chiovari will serve as Interim Chief Financial Officer. Amy has been an invaluable member of the B&G Foods family since joining the Company in 1996. Amy has served in various capacities within our accounting and finance department and over the years has been responsible for many functions, including, corporate accounting, corporate finance, financial reporting, treasury, tax and internal control over financial reporting.

(The American Institute of Architects) Architecture Billings Index rebounds into positive territory

  • Business conditions projected to solidify moving into the spring and summer
  • The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the February ABI score was 50.7, up from a score of 49.5 in the previous month. This score reflects a minor increase in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 61.5, up from a reading of 60.0 the previous month, while the new design contracts index climbed from 52.1 to 54.7.
  • “The sluggish start to the year in architecture firm billings should give way to stronger design activity as the year progresses,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “New project inquiries have been very strong through the first two months of the year, and in February new design contracts at architecture firms posted their largest monthly gain in over two years.”

(Bloomberg) Ally Adds Fuel to Avis’ and Hertz’ Fire on Residual Credit Risk

  • Ally Financial Inc. warned profit may grow less than anticipated only a few months ago, the latest sign that automakers’ heavy discounting and aggressive use of leasing to boost sales has created a supply glut hurting lenders and rental-car companies.
  • Ally Financial’s comments that used-car prices were down 7% in 1Q vs. its forecast of 5% adds fuel to the fire on the topic of residual values. Issuers such as Avis and Hertz, as well as automotive OEMs such as Ford and GM, are exposed to potential higher depreciation and writedowns if asset values decline faster than previously anticipated.
  • The National Automobile Dealers Association’s Used Car Guide index declined 3.8 percent in February, the eighth consecutive drop and the steepest since November 2008.

(Bloomberg) Trump Digs in Heels on Gambit for GOP to Vote on Health Bill

  • The Trump administration doubled down on its demand that House Republican leaders hold a vote Friday on their embattled health-care bill without any changes and with lingering uncertainty about whether they have enough support to pass the measure.
  • If the high-stakes gamble works and the House manages to pass the Obamacare replacement bill, it will be an important win for Trump and House Speaker Paul Ryan who have formed an uneasy alliance to repeal former President Barack Obama’s signature health-care law.
  • If the measure is blocked, it will be an embarrassing setback that casts doubt on Trump and Ryan’s ability to deliver on their ambitious agenda, including taxes and infrastructure, both of which are being closely watched by Wall Street.
  • “He wants to do this and he wants to do it now,” White House budget director Mick Mulvaney said of Trump on ABC Friday morning. “He also wants to move on to things like tax reform, infrastructure, restructuring the government, putting people back to work. He’s not willing to wait the several months an ordinary president would.”
  • The Trump administration made a last-minute deal with House conservatives to change the bill — by removing Obamacare’s requirements that certain essential benefits be covered by insurance — in an effort to win over holdouts, who had forced GOP leaders to delay a vote originally scheduled for Thursday.
  • Then Trump aides, including senior strategist Steve Bannon, went to Capitol Hill to deliver a message in person to House leaders and the Republican caucus that the president has run out of patience: Trump wanted a vote Friday, win or lose, even if that means leaving Obamacare in place.
17 Mar 2017

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Lipper, for the week ended March 15th, investment grade funds posted a net inflow of $451.607m. Per Lipper data, the year-to-date net inflow into investment grade funds is just shy of $30bn through March 15th. Per Wells Fargo, investment grade corporate issuance through Thursday was 25.4bn, up +14% y/y.

(Bloomberg) Fed Notches a Win in Central Bank Battle With Markets on Outlook

  • That’s the takeaway from the past three weeks, which have shown the Federal Reserve regaining command of the outlook for U.S. monetary policy. Traders have moved more into step with Fed officials’ dot-plot chart for projected interest-rate increases — a big contrast from last year, when the market called the central bank out on its plans for four rate hikes.
  • The difference can be most clearly seen with the Fed, which began 2016 with an expectation to raise its benchmark four times. Futures traders gave that outcome just 14 percent odds, and proved right to do so — in the end, there was only the one quarter-point move. This year began with the market again disbelieving the Fed and its outlook for three hikes, placing minority odds on that many moves. Now, the probability is around 57 percent.
  • “The latest market reactions to the FOMC decision seems to suggest that there is a great deal of credibility in the r* being low,” said Stephen Jen, the London-based chief executive of hedge fund Eurizon SLJ Capital Ltd., using the economics term for equilibrium interest rate.
  • For now at least, the mood music is shifting the way of central banks as policy makers adapt to the improving world economy. That offers officials a respite to work on the next big challenge: whether and how to shrink their gargantuan balance sheets.

(8-K Filing) VEPCO brings a new 10yr bond

  • On March 13, 2017, Virginia Electric and Power Company (the Company) entered into an underwriting agreement (the Underwriting Agreement) with Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as Representatives for the underwriters named in the Underwriting Agreement, for the sale of $750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 2017 Series A 3.50% Senior Notes due 2027. Such Senior Notes, which are designated the 2017 Series A 3.50% Senior Notes due 2027, are Senior Debt Securities that were registered by the Company pursuant to a registration statement on Form S-3 under Rule 415 under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, which registration statement became effective on December 19, 2014 (File No. 333-201153). A copy of the Underwriting Agreement, including exhibits thereto, is filed as Exhibit 1.1 to this Form 8-K.

(Bloomberg) Oil Set for Weekly Gain as Saudis Say Willing to Extend Curbs

  • Nationwide crude inventories decline from record weekly level
  • Saudi Arabia says output cuts may be extended beyond June
  • Oil last week broke below $50 a barrel for the first time since December as rising U.S. output countered production curbs by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other nations. While markets are still struggling to clear a surge in supply from OPEC at the end of 2016, compliance with the cuts remains above 90 percent, the International Energy Agency said.
  • “The recovery at this stage remains fragile,” said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen. “The market managed to find support at key levels following a small drop in U.S. crude inventories. We are very likely to see an extension to the current production-cut deal if the aim is to bring stocks down to the five-year average.”
10 Mar 2017

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Lipper, for the week ended March 8th, investment grade funds posted a net inflow of $3.482bn. Per Lipper data, the year-to-date net inflow into investment grade funds is $29.434bn through March 8th. Per Bloomberg, investment grade corporate issuance through Thursday was just over $50bn –that total will grow for the full week with at least two new deals still pending as of Friday morning. Year-to-date investment grade corporate issuance will finish the week at ~$330bn. Per Wells Fargo, 2017 investment grade issuance is outpacing 2016 issuance by +11%.

(Bloomberg, Press Release) Toll Brothers, Inc. Prices $300 Million of Senior Notes

  • The Notes have a coupon of 4.875% and will pay interest semi-annually on March 15 and September 15, commencing September 15, 2017.
  • The Company expects to use the net proceeds from the Offering for general corporate purposes, which may include repayment of indebtedness.

(Bloomberg, Moodys) Moody’s Upgrades Vulcan Materials to Investment Grade

  • Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) upgraded the senior unsecured debt ratings of Vulcan Materials Company (“Vulcan”) to Baa3 from Ba1. The rating outlook is stable.
  • The upgrade reflects continued improvement in Vulcan’s financial ratios resulting from debt reduction and improved operating performance. The company’s adjusted debt-to-EBITDA declined to 2.5x for the year-end 2016 from 2.8x at year-end 2015 and 3.7x at year-end 2014. Adjusted operating margins have also improved over the same periods, increasing to 19.5% from 17.3% and 11.4%, respectively. Moreover, the rating upgrade reflects Moody’s belief that Vulcan has the willingness and ability to defend its investment grade rating in a downturn.

(Bloomberg, Kepler Cheuvreux) BASF Likely to Acquire Agro Assets Divested Due to M&A: Kepler

  • Agro M&A to continue as Bayer/Monsanto and Dow/DuPont have to sell assets to obtain regulatory approval for their respective deals, Kepler Cheuvreux says in note.
    • Says BASF could approach regulatory bodies to express their interest in assets that are expected to be sold by Bayer and Dow/DuPont
    • Sumitomo could look to add to its agrochemical set-up
    • Private equity or generic firms such as FMC or Nufarm may also be interested
    • Bayer likely to divest their Liberty Link franchise, along with cotton and other selected seeds
    • Dow’s Mycogen seed assets likely to be put up for sale
    • This is a portfolio of corn, soya, sunflower, and canola with sales of $1.5b
    • Dow’s portfolio could sell for $7.5b or to 5x sales
    • Bayer’s Liberty Link alone may be worth up to EU4.8b
    • BASF is one of the top candidates for these “stranded” assets

(Bloomberg, Reuters) Bayer, Monsanto Said to Start $2.5b Asset Sales Next Week: Rtrs

  • Bayer and Monsanto plan to start selling assets worth ~$2.5b to get regulatory clearance for their merger, Reuters reports, citing unidentified people close to matter.
    • Bayer’s advisers plan to send information packages next week to possible buyers: Reuters
    • Bayer, Monsanto declined to comment to Reuters
    • NOTE: Feb. 23, Bayer/Monsanto Deal More Than 80% Likely to Close: Citi
10 Mar 2017

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Wells Fargo, flows week to date were -$2.7 billion and year to date flows stand at $5.2 billion. New issuance for the week was $16.7 billion and year to date HY is at $56.7 billion.

(The Hollywood Reporter) Regal CEO Backs Shortened Theatrical Windowing

  • “As long as we can find a solution that grows the overall pie, we think it could be good for the overall industry,” Amy Miles told an investors conference.
  • Miles confirmed discussions continue between major studios and exhibitors about possibly offering movies in a premium VOD window soon after their cinema run. She added any deal to emerge from those talks cannot eat into the existing theatrical business.

(Modern Healthcare) The battle begins as House Republicans release ACA repeal bill

  • Under pressure from conservatives and the business community, House Republicans have released a bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act that ditches their previous proposal to tax high-value employer health plans.
  • The 123-page bill, dubbed the American Health Care Act, was released Monday night. It would replace the ACA’s income-based premium tax credits with fixed, age-based tax credits that generally would be smaller. It would end enhanced federal funding for states to expand Medicaid to low-income adults. And it would convert Medicaid from an open-ended entitlement to a program of capped, per-capita payments to the states.
  • But the bill would continue funding for the Medicaid expansion until 2020, and also keep the law’s premium subsidies through the insurance exchanges until 2020. That could set up a political battle over keeping or ending Obamacare coverage expansions just as the next presidential election campaign heats up.

(Company Filing) Service Corp. reaches settlement with the IRS

  • Service Corporation International reached an agreement in principle with the Internal Revenue Service to resolve the issues under audit with respect to tax years 1999 through 2005. In early March Service Corp received from the IRS Office of Appeals the fully executed Forms 870-AD, which, subject to finalization of computations, effectively settles the issues under audit for those years. As a result of this resolution, Service Corp anticipates paying approximately a net $40.0 million in tax and interest within the next few months and expects to fund this amount using available capacity under our bank credit facility. Furthermore, it is anticipated that the resolution of these tax audits will result in a reduction to current reserves for unrecognized tax benefits of approximately $100.0 million, and will result in a corresponding reduction in the 2017 tax expense.

(Bloomberg) Community Health Sells $2.2 Billion of Bonds Amid Debt Recovery

  • Community Health Systems sold $2.2 billion of secured bonds on Tuesday to refinance some of its $15 billion debt load.
  • Investor demand allowed the company to increase the size of its offering of 6.25 percent coupon six-year notes from a planned $1.75 billion. The bond deal is the company’s first since 2014 and comes after the hospital chain beat fourth-quarter earnings estimates and announced plans to divest more assets to lower its leverage.
  • The Franklin, Tennessee-based company will use proceeds to pay down a portion of its debt, which is starting to rebound after trading at deep discounts following two consecutive quarterly losses in 2016. It will repurchase $700 million of 5.125 percent bonds due in 2018 and repay a $1.023 billion term loan

(Transcript) Spectrum Brands CFO Doug Martin makes comments at Raymond James Conference

  • Now, we generate a lot of cash flow and we expect to generate a couple billion or more of operating cash flow over the next couple of years. And we have been, for the last couple of years, paying down debt. As we said, we would when we bought Global Auto Care.
  • But now we have more optionality, we can continue to do bolt-on acquisitions and every few years you’ll probably see us do a transformational acquisition like Global Auto Care or like HHI, and you’re going to expect that from us. But if we don’t find attractive prices for acquisitions, we’ll pass. We haven’t bought anything in two years, because prices have just been – they’ve been too expensive. So we passed on a lot of opportunities and instead given some of that back to shareholders.
  • And we’ve got a good track record of deleveraging after we do major acquisitions, and understand that there are limits to – self-imposed limits to the use of our balance sheet. And so, we’re willing to lever up as long as we have very clear line of sight to quickly delevering and integrating those acquired businesses.
  • Our acquisition priorities are across all categories except for appliances and batteries. Batteries is probably not really an opportunity globally and appliances and personal care are lower EBITDA margin businesses, and they also have the lowest barriers to entry. So we probably wouldn’t do much in a way of M&A in those categories.

(Bloomberg) ADP Says Companies in U.S. Hired the Most in Almost Three Years

  • Companies added the most workers in almost three years to U.S. payrolls in February on a surge in construction and manufacturing employment, data from the ADP Research Institute in Roseland, New Jersey, showed Wednesday.
  • Private payrolls climbed by 298,000 (forecast was 187,000), the most since April 2014, after a revised 261,000 gain in January
  • Goods-producing industries, which include manufacturers and builders, increased headcounts by 106,000, a record in data going back to 2002, after a 55,000 gain
03 Mar 2017

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Wells Fargo, flows week to date were $0.5 billion and year to date flows stand at $8 billion. New issuance for the week was $2.3 billion and year to date HY is at $40 billion.

(Reuters) Sinclair approaches Tribune Media about possible deal

  • A deal between Sinclair and Tribune Media, which have market capitalizations of $3.8 billion and $3.3 billion respectively, would combine two of the largest U.S. local TV station owners and face regulatory curbs on how many households they can reach
  • Analysts have said the broadcast industry hopes President Donald Trump will lift caps on ownership concentration, allowing it to compete for audiences and advertising dollars against Facebook Inc and Alphabet Inc’s Google
  • The discussions between the companies are preliminary and there is no certainty they will lead to any deal, the sources said

(Business Wire) Frontier Communications Reports Financial Results

  • Dan McCarthy, President and CEO, stated, “During the quarter we made significant progress in positioning our company to deliver a better customer experience and improved financial performance, with greater financial flexibility. Our reorganization into separate Commercial and Consumer business units will result in a more customer-centric approach, while reducing expenses and enabling more efficient capital deployment.”
  • “Results for the fourth quarter were impacted by our intensified efforts to resolve acquired accounts in California, Texas and Florida that we have determined to be non-paying. This process is almost complete, and we expect to return to a normalized trend by the start of the second quarter. I am pleased that underlying CTF customer trends improved in Q4 and continue to improve in Q1.”

(Business Wire) Intelsat and OneWeb Announce Conditional Combination Agreement

  • Intelsat and OneWeb today announced that they have entered into a definitive combination agreement pursuant to which Intelsat and OneWeb will merge in a share-for-share transaction. Intelsat and SoftBank Group also entered into a definitive share purchase agreement pursuant to which SoftBank will invest $1.7 billion in newly issued common and preferred shares of the combined company
  • Both the merger and the SoftBank investment are subject to, among other conditions, successful completion of debt exchange offers to certain existing Intelsat bondholders as well as receipt of certain regulatory approvals

(Industrial Distribution) U.S. Oil Rig Count Now Above 600, Up 50% Year-Over-Year

  • The U.S. total active rig count made a small gain last week, adding three total. It was the sixth straight week the combined oil and gas rig total has increased. Friday’s rig count provided by oilfield services provider Baker Hughes, checked in at 754 — its highest since Nov. 20, 2015. The total is up by 50.2 percent from a year earlier, and up 86.6 percent since bottoming out at 404 in May 2016
  • The U.S. added five oil rigs last week, pushing its current mark to 602. It was the sixth straight week that the oil rig count has grown, and the 16th week in the past 17. The U.S. lost two gas rigs last week, marking just the second week of decline in the past 16. The active gas rig count of 151
  • Texas once again dominated the overall rig count gain last week, adding eight to a total of 386. That figure is up 67.1 percent year-over-year. Wyoming added one rig, Alaska and Louisiana each lost two and North Dakota lost one

(Business Wire) AES Corp. Reports Financial Results

  • Overall results reflected the impact from the devaluation in foreign currencies, lower electricity prices, certain gains that benefited 2015 results and higher non-cash impairment losses, partially offset by a lower effective tax rate
  • Consolidated Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities for full year 2016 was $2,884 million, an increase of $750 million compared to full year 2015. The increase was primarily driven by higher collections at the Company’s distribution businesses in Brazil, Eletropaulo and Sul, and the settlement of overdue receivables at Maritza in Bulgaria. These positive contributions were offset by lower margins across the SBUs, as well as the recovery of overdue receivables in the Dominican Republic in 2015, which benefited 2015 results. Full Year 2016 Proportional Free Cash Flow (a non-GAAP financial measure) increased $176 million to $1,417 million compared to full year 2015, primarily due to the same factors as Consolidated Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities
  • “We ended 2016 on a high note, achieving our guidance for all metrics, with cash flow coming in at the high end, and Adjusted EPS well within, our ranges. We also continued to make strides on our strategic objectives by completing 3 GW of construction projects, selling non-core assets and making further cost cuts and revenue enhancements,” said Andrés Gluski, AES President and Chief Executive Officer. “The recent purchase of sPower increases our long-term contracted, U.S. Dollar-denominated, renewable portfolio, which was one of our stated objectives for 2016.”
24 Feb 2017

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Wells Fargo, flows week to date were $0.8 billion and year to date flows stand at $7.4 billion. New issuance for the week was $1 billion and year to date HY is at $37.7 billion.

(RigZone) 2017 Offshore Spending Plan To Rival Shale Investment

  • For every dollar invested this year in North American shale plays, another dollar will be allocated for planned projects offshore, racking up spending of $70 billion in each sector, analysts at Rystad Energy said in a report
  • But not all analysts agree that offshore spending is in the midst of a surge. Terry Childs, director at Rigzone Data Services, said offshore investment declined between 30 percent and 35 percent in 2016. For the current year, offshore CAPEX is also expected to decline, but not at the same steep rate
  • Marc Edwards, CEO at Diamond Offshore, said deepwater operators understand that for now, it’s difficult to compete with the unconventional space. “In the short run, if oil stays in a range bound, let’s say $50 to $55, I think you’ll see our clients’ capital still have a propensity to be deployed to unconventional light-tight oil onshore.”

(The Associated Press) McConnell intends to replace ‘Obamacare’ without Democrats

  • “It’s clear that in the early months it’s going to be a Republicans-only exercise,” the Kentucky senator said. “We don’t expect any Democratic cooperation on the replacement of Obamacare, we don’t expect any Democratic cooperation on tax reform.”
  • McConnell has condemned Democrats for passing Obamacare in the first place, in 2010, without any Republican votes, claiming the partisan exercise set the law up to fail

(Bloomberg) Toll Brothers Beats Estimates as Company Delivers More Homes

  • Toll Brothers Inc., the biggest U.S. luxury-home builder, reported better-than-expected earnings for its fiscal first quarter as it faced limited competition from other public companies focused on cheaper properties
  • “Their results have been very impressive,” Drew Reading, a homebuilding analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, said before Toll released earnings. “You can attribute a lot of it to the strength of their land positions. A lot of their communities are in better located submarkets within the areas they operate.”
  • The company delivered 1,190 homes in the quarter, about 12 percent more than a year earlier, while the average selling price fell about 11 percent to $773,700 due to changes in the type of properties being constructed

(Business Wire) Community Health Systems, Inc. Announces Financial Results and 2017 Guidance

  • Net operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2016, totaled $18.438 billion, a 5.1 percent decrease compared with $19.437 billion for the same period in 2015
  • Adjusted EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2016, was $2.225 billion compared with $2.670 billion for the same period in 2015, representing a 16.7 percent decrease
  • On a same-store basis, admissions decreased 1.9 percent and adjusted admissions decreased 0.5 percent during the year ended December 31, 2016, compared with the same period in 2015
  • Commenting on the results, Wayne T. Smith, chairman and chief executive officer of Community Health Systems, Inc., said, “Significant progress has been made in our work to divest certain hospitals and other operations, enabling a reduction in our debt and the opportunity to reshape our portfolio into a stronger, more sustainable organization. Moving forward in 2017 and beyond, we are intently focused on efficiency improvements in our operations, strategic initiatives that enhance growth in our markets, and portfolio optimization that reduces our total debt.”

(Business Wire) Cloud Peak Energy Inc. Announces Public Offering of Common Stock

  • Cloud Peak Energy Inc. announced that it has commenced a registered underwritten public offering of 13,500,000 shares of its common stock. CPE Inc. intends to grant the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase 2,000,000 additional shares of common stock. CPE Inc. intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund the full redemption of its outstanding 8.50% Senior Notes due 2019, plus accrued and unpaid interest to the redemption date, with any remaining proceeds to be used for general corporate purposes.

(Globe Newswire) Pinnacle Foods Inc. Reports Financial Results

  • Grew net sales 17.8%, driven by the Boulder Brands acquisition and continued strong growth of the Frozen segment – particularly the Birds Eye franchise.
  • Expanded gross margin by 140 basis points versus year-ago and Adjusted gross margin by 120 basis points.
  • Commenting on the results, Pinnacle Foods Chief Executive Officer Mark Clouse stated, “We are pleased with our strong finish to 2016, as effective investment in the fourth quarter behind our key franchises, particularly Birds Eye, drove significant retail consumption growth and meaningful market share expansion for the Company. For the full year, solid top-line performance, coupled with gross margin expansion, continued tight management of overhead expenses and the benefit of acquisition synergies, enabled us to finish 2016 ahead of our long-term growth algorithm and at the top of our recently increased guidance range. Looking ahead, we are highly confident in our outlook for 2017, due to strong underlying momentum in the business, our very robust innovation and margin agenda and the benefit of our recent refinancing.”
24 Feb 2017

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Lipper, for the week ended February 22nd, taxable bond funds posted a net inflow of $3.987bn. The weekly average inflow thus far in 2017 remains just north of $4bn per week. Per Bloomberg, investment grade corporate issuance through Thursday was $13.925bn. February issuance stands at $75bn, while year-to-date investment grade issuance has now topped $231bn, up about 21% year-over-year.

(Bloomberg) Fitch Upgrades Pioneer Natural Resources to ‘BBB’

  • The upgrade reflects Fitch’s view that the company will be able to execute its medium-term growth targets given its competitive full-cycle breakeven oil price, favorable hedge position and policy, and strong liquidity position, while reducing gross debt and maintaining a leverage profile generally consistent with or better than similarly rated North American (N.A.) exploration and production (E&P) peers. Fitch’s base case currently forecasts that in 2019 Pioneer’s core Permian production will exceed 300 thousand boe per day (mboepd), gross debt/EBITDA will be below 1x, and liquidity will remain strong.

(Bloomberg) Merck Takes $1.9B Writedown as Hepatitis C Market Shrinks

  • Merck & Co., one of the U.S.’s biggest drugmakers, will write down most of what it paid for a promising, experimental hepatitis C drug in 2014, partly because of the extreme success of other new therapies has left a shrinking market.
  • In a filing Thursday, Merck said it would take a $2.9 billion charge, or $1.9 billion after taxes, on uprifosbuvir, which it bought in 2014 in its $3.9 billion acquisition of Idenix Pharmaceuticals Inc. and is still in clinical trials. Merck said it now values the drug at $240 million.
  • The market for treatments for hepatitis C, a virus that attacks the liver and can lead to cirrhosis or liver cancer, has been declining recently, with fewer patients to treat following major breakthroughs in science that brought to market highly effective, fast-working cures.

(Bloomberg) HP’s Earnings Show the PC Market Is Finally Starting to Recover

  • Prior to HP Inc’s January quarter earnings report, there were already plenty of signs that the hard-luck PC market was beginning to stabilize. Shipment estimates from major research firms, as well as earnings reports from the likes of Microsoft, Intel, AMD, Seagate and Western Digital, pointed to a market whose sales declines were narrowing considerably from the steep levels seen during the first half of 2016.
  • HP’s numbers went beyond that, however. They suggest the steady arrival of compelling new hardware and form factors, together with an aging installed base and favorable annual comparisons, is positioning the PC industry to deliver positive growth over the near-term.
  • HP Inc., which contains the former Hewlett-Packard’s PC and printing businesses, reported fiscal first quarter revenue of $12.68 billion (up 4% annually) and adjusted EPS of $0.38. The former trounced a consensus analyst estimate of $11.83 billion, while the latter slightly beat a $0.37 consensus.
  • HP also guided for second quarter EPS of $0.37 to $0.40, in line with a $0.38 pre-earnings consensus. Fiscal 2017 (ends in October) EPS guidance of $1.55 to $1.65 was reiterated.
  • Shares rose 8.6% to $17.60 on Thursday, hitting their highest levels since the old HP broke up in late 2015.
17 Feb 2017

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Wells Fargo, flows week to date were $0.9 billion and year to date flows stand at $5.6 billion. New issuance for the week was $5.1 billion and year to date HY is at $36.6 billion.

(Business Wire) Mediacom Communications Completes New Term Loan

  • The $1.37 billion proceeds from the financing transactions were used to repay all of Mediacom LLC’s previously outstanding indebtedness
  • “We are very pleased with today’s completed transactions, which reduce MCCC’s interest expense to an all-time low, while extending the maturities of our debt arrangements,” stated Mark E. Stephan, MCCC’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. “Mediacom’s quality reputation in the financial community fueled robust lender demand that allowed us to upsize and tighten the pricing on the institutional term loans. Our balance sheet has never been stronger, and with an industry-leading average cost of debt now below 4%, our ability to generate free cash flow has strengthened even further.”

(New York Times) Michael Flynn Resigns as National Security Adviser

  • Michael T. Flynn, the national security adviser, resigned after it was revealed that he had misled Vice President Mike Pence and other top White House officials about his conversations with the Russian ambassador to the United States
  • Mr. Flynn, who served in the job for less than a month, said he had given “incomplete information” regarding a telephone call he had with the ambassador in late December about American sanctions against Russia, weeks before President Trump’s inauguration. Mr. Flynn previously had denied that he had any substantive conversations with Ambassador Sergey I. Kislyak, and Mr. Pence repeated that claim in television interviews as recently as this month

(Bloomberg) Fed Chair Yellen Testifies to Congress

  • Yellen’s comments lifted the odds for a rate hike at the March meeting four points to 34 percent. While futures traders still see less than 50 percent odds for three increases this year, President Donald Trump’s vow to pursue pro-growth policies could push the Fed to pick up the pace. Inflation data Tuesday from China to American showed accelerating price gains at factories, bolstering the case for tightening before a reading on U.S. consumer price data Wednesday.
  • “Waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise, potentially requiring the FOMC to eventually raise rates rapidly, which could risk disrupting financial markets and pushing the economy into recession,” Yellen said

(PR Newswire) Huntsman Announces Financial Results

  • Peter R. Huntsman, our President and CEO, commented: “At the beginning of 2016, we announced our intent to generate more than $350 million of free cash flow. We delivered a record $686 million of free cash flow in 2016, including $117 million during the fourth quarter. We used this cash, together with proceeds from the sale of our European surfactants business, to repay $560 million in debt, significantly strengthening our balance sheet.
  • “We are also delivering on our commitment to separate the TiO2 business through the spin-off of Venator. We continue to make steady progress with the IRS to allow Huntsman to retain a 40% economic interest in Venator.”
  • Post the financial report, Huntsman did receive a private letter ruling from the IRS allowing the company to retain a 40% economic interest in the tax-free spinoff of Venator Materials

(PR Newswire) Equinix Reports Full Year Results

  • Revenues from continuing operations of $3,612 million, a 33% increase over the previous year; an organic and constant currency growth rate of greater than 14%
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $1,657 million, a 46% adjusted EBITDA margin
  • “2016 was a pivotal year for Equinix. We continued to capture the shift to the cloud, expand our global reach and scale, grow interconnection, and deliver record bookings and increasing shareholder returns. We are operating at the intersection of some of the greatest technology trends in our lifetime, and the digital transformation driven by cloud services is shifting compute, storage and networking to the edge, which plays into our dense ecosystems and global scale. We look forward to a busy 2017 as weintegrate our acquisitions, grow our global platform, enhance our portfolio of services and increase our reach and relevance to the cloud-enabled enterprise,” said Steve Smith, President and CEO.

(Globe Newswire) Avis Budget Group Reports Financial Results

  • For the year, the Company reported revenue of $8.7 billion, an increase of 2% compared with 2015. The Company reported full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $838 million and free cash flow of $472 million in 2016
  • “While our fourth quarter results reflect softer-than-expected volume and pricing, as well as currency movements having a $7 million adverse impact on Adjusted EBITDA compared to what we had anticipated, we are enthusiastic about our prospects for 2017 and beyond,” said Larry De Shon, Avis Budget Group Chief Executive Officer. “Our strategic initiatives are already beginning to deliver meaningful benefits, and we continue to expect that our efforts will drive substantial long-term margin growth.”
17 Feb 2017

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Lipper, for the week ended February 15th, investment grade funds posted a net inflow of $3.054bn. The total year-to-date net inflow into investment grade funds ended the week at $20.342bn. Per Bloomberg, investment grade corporate issuance through Thursday was $25.05bn. Year-to-date investment grade issuance has now topped $218bn, up over 60% from this point last year.

(Bloomberg) 600 MHz Spectrum Auction Highlights Telco Demand Shift

  • The 600 MHz auction’s assignment phase will end no later than March 30, 24 days after it begins, as the spectrum sale nears a close. Carriers including AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon and others such as Dish and Comcast bid $19.6 billion for the licenses in the forward portion of the auction and now will compete for their exact frequency allocations in the assignment phase of the auction.
  • Once bidding ends, the FCC will announce the winners and down payments will then be due within 10 days.
  • Broadcasters including 21st Century Fox, Gray TV, Tribune and Sinclair won’t receive proceeds at least until payments are made by forward auction bidders. Broadcasters will be paid out when license applications from winning forward auction bidders are approved on a rolling, per-license basis.

(Press Release, Conference Call) Masco reported 4Q and full year results

  • Masco has around $600mm in cash over in Europe and other jurisdictions
  • The company is seeing strong demand in their Repair & Remodeling products across all product lines and price points. R&R accounts for 83% of total sales (unchanged)
  • 2016 Revenue influenced by:
    • Decreased by $68mm (1% of revenue) due to currency translation.
      • Currency translation is expected to affect sales by $100mm during 2017
    • Decreased by $21mm (.3% of revenue) due to warranty reserve increase in their Milgard window business in Q3
  • Masco is still focusing on bolt-on strategies in either their plumbing or decorative architecture segments, which has been unchanged over the past several quarters
    • One change, in their comment, was that they are also looking at other areas, but the focus is still on plumbing and decorative architecture
  • Masco returned $585mm to its shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during 2016 (compared to $546mm in FCF)

(Bloomberg) Ford’s Dozing Engineers Side With Google in Full Autonomy Push

  • As Ford Motor Co. has been developing self-driving cars, the U.S. automaker has started noticing a problem during test drives: Engineers monitoring the robot rides are dozing off.
  • Company researchers have tried to roust the engineers with bells, buzzers, warning lights, vibrating seats and shaking steering wheels.
  • BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen AG’s Audi plan to roll out semi-autonomous cars starting next year that require drivers to take over with as little as 10 seconds notice.
  • Ford plans to skip that level altogether. The automaker has aligned with Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo, which made similar discoveries related to human inattention while researching Google’s driverless car.
10 Feb 2017

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Wells Fargo, flows week to date were $1.0 billion and year to date flows stand at $4.0 billion. New issuance for the week was $9.3 billion and year to date HY is at $31.5 billion.

(Reuters) Tax reforms might impact U.S. bond market

  • US corporate tax reform proposals are causing consternation among bond market players, who fear their implementation will drastically reduce issuance levels
  • President Donald Trump has plans to cut corporate tax rates, allow repatriation of cash stuck in overseas accounts, and eliminate companies’ ability to deduct debt interest expenses from tax – actions some think would hugely reduce companies’ current reliance on debt
  • “The elimination of tax deductibility will not be the death knell for the corporate bond market all of a sudden,” said Matthew Minnetian, a portfolio manager at Alliance Bernstein
  • “I’d be very surprised to see capital structures change overnight, and if you look at the cost of debt versus the return on equity, the cost of debt is still very low.”

(New York Times) Trump Says Health Law Replacement May Not Be Ready Until 2018

  • President Trump said in an interview that aired on Sunday that a replacement health care law was not likely to be ready until either the end of this year or in 2018, a major shift from promises by both him and Republican leaders to repeal and replace the law as soon as possible
  • “Maybe it’ll take till sometime into next year, but we’re certainly going to be in the process,” Mr. Trump said during an interview with Bill O’Reilly of Fox News, after Mr. O’Reilly asked the president whether Americans could “expect a new health care plan rolled out by the Trump administration this year.”
  • “It statutorily takes awhile to get,” Mr. Trump said. “We’re going to be putting it in fairly soon, I think that, yes, I would like to say by the end of the year at least the rudiments but we should have something within the year and the following year.”

(Fierce Wireless) Mobile video to grow almost 900% by 2021, Cisco predicts

  • Worldwide consumption of mobile video will grow nearly ninefold from 2016 to 2021, Cisco predicted, and will account for 78% of all mobile traffic by the end of that time period, up from 60% last year
  • “With the proliferation of IoT, live mobile video, augmented and virtual reality applications, and more innovative experiences for consumers and business users alike, 5G technology will have significant relevance not just for mobility but rather for networking as a whole,” said Doug Webster, Cisco’s vice president of service provider marketing. “As a result, broader and more extensive architectural transformations involving programmability and automation will also be needed to support the capabilities 5G enables, and to address not just today’s demands but also the extensive possibilities on the horizon.”

(Globe Newswire) CoreCivic Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2016 Results

  • “The final quarter of 2016 was exceptionally busy, with many significant accomplishments of which we are proud. During the quarter we formally launched the CoreCivic brand which more appropriately reflects the range of solutions we can provide, substantially completed the expansion of our Red Rock Correctional Center, entered into two new contracts with Immigration and Customs Enforcement to help address their emergent bed capacity needs, and extended our contract with the Federal Bureau of Prisons at our McRae Correctional Facility, to name a few of those accomplishments,” said Damon T. Hininger, CoreCivic’s President and Chief Executive Officer. “We see many opportunities to work with new and existing partners to deliver real estate solutions that address each partner’s unique needs, and we have the expertise and flexibility to deliver those solutions in an innovative and cost-effective manner.”
  • Revenue of $464.1 million for 4Q increased 3.6% from the prior year quarter
  • Total revenue of $1.85 billion in 2016 versus $1.79 billion in 2015

(Bloomberg) Junk May Slam Into $1 Trillion Wall as Maturities Hit Record

  • A record $1 trillion of junk debt will mature by 2021, leaving high-risk companies to hunt for new cash at a time when markets are likely to be less welcoming, according to Moody’s Investors Service
  • Speculative-grade companies have $1.06 trillion of debt maturing between 2017 and 2021, with the bulk of it, $933 billion, coming due after 2019, Moody’s said Wednesday in a report
  • More than 30 percent of the high-yield bonds coming due are rated Caa1 or below by Moody’s, at least seven levels below investment grade. More than 8 percent of leveraged loans are rated Caa1 or below, up from 5.8 percent in the equivalent 2016 study. The telecommunications sector has the most debt coming due over the next five years with $81 billion

(Bloomberg) OPEC Keeps Its Promise About Crude Oil Cuts, IEA Says

  • OPEC achieved the best compliance rate in its history at the outset of an accord to clear the oil glut
  • The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries implemented 90 percent of promised output cuts in January