Category: Insight

28 Jul 2017

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Lipper, for the week ended July 26, investment grade funds posted a net inflow of $2.319m. This marks 32 straight weeks of inflows and inflows in 68 of the last 73 weeks. Per Lipper data, the year-to-date net inflow into investment grade funds was $77.541bn. According to Bloomberg, investment grade corporate issuance for the week was $36.35bn. Through the week, YTD total corporate bond issuance was $830.435bn, which is down 1% when compared to 2016.

(Moody’s) Moody’s upgrades PG&E Corporation and Pacific Gas & Electric; outlook revised to stable

  • Moody’s Investors Service, (“Moody’s”) today upgraded PG&E Corporation’s (PCG) senior unsecured rating to A3 from Baa1.The senior unsecured rating at Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PG&E), PCG’s principal utility operating subsidiary, was upgraded to A2 from A3. PG&E’s commercial paper rating was also upgraded to Prime-1 (P-1) from Prime-2 (P-2). The outlook on both companies was revised to stable from positive.

(Bloomberg) AT&T Sells Year’s Biggest Bond Deal and Market Wanted Even More

  • AT&T Inc. sold $22.5 billion of bonds in a multi-part offering on Thursday, drawing almost three times as many orders as there were securities for sale, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. It’s not only the largest investment-grade deal of the year, but the third-biggest in history behind offerings from Verizon Communications Inc. and Anheuser-Busch InBev SA. The sale is likely the last funding AT&T needs for its $85.4 billion takeover of Time Warner Inc.
  • The longest portion of the sale, which came in seven parts, is a 41-year bond that yields about 2.4 percentage points above Treasuries, down from initial talk of 2.55 percentage points, another person said. With the U.S. offering higher yields than Europe and Japan, it has become a destination for foreign investors to park their money, a trend that AT&T benefited from.

(FBN) Illinois Tool Works Sees Margin Expansion and Earnings Growth

  • Multi-industrial company Illinois Tool Works (NYSE: ITW) delivered another good quarter of earnings and raised full-year guidance across the board. It was a positive quarter for the company, driven by its automotive segment and recovery in some of its more cyclical segments (specifically welding, test and measurement, and electronics). That said, management served notice of a relative slowdown in the third quarter.

(Bloomberg) Caterpillar Outlook Bright as Sales, Margins Rebound

  • A global recovery in Caterpillar’s key markets is picking up steam — earlier than expected — after four years of plummeting sales as global growth accelerates. Aftermarket demand is leading the charge, yet construction equipment is strong and 2Q mining orders doubled. Almost $2 billion in cost cuts, with more to come, is generating much higher-than-historical operating leverage as volume rises. Market-share gains achieved in the downturn are another potential driver as mining and construction markets rebound.
  • As the leader in construction and mining machinery, Caterpillar is a major beneficiary of a global recovery. The company may face a one-time charge of $2 billion related to alleged tax violations at a Swiss-based subsidiary and a higher tax rate.
21 Jul 2017

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Lipper, for the week ended July 19, investment grade funds posted a net inflow of $3.817m down from $2.299bn the prior week. This marks 31 straight weeks of inflows and inflows in 67 of the last 72 weeks. Per Lipper data, the year-to-date net inflow into investment grade funds was $75.222bn. According to Bloomberg, investment grade corporate issuance for the week was $47.7bn. Through the week, YTD total corporate bond issuance was $794.085bn, which is down 3% when compared to 2016.

(Bloomberg) Abbott Boosts Full Year Forecast as Deals Fall Into Place

  • The company raised its full-year guidance after showing strength in its pain control and diabetes businesses. Abbott closed its $29 billion deal for St. Jude Medical in January, doubling the size of its medical technology division and expanding beyond devices used to clear clogged heart arteries. Its diagnostics business, about to swell with the addition of Alere Inc. after a protracted battle, is showing strength as well.
  • The legacy St. Jude business grew at about a 4 percent pace in the quarter, after breaking even for the past four years, Abbott Chief Executive Officer Miles White said during a conference call with analysts. That trend should continue or accelerate, he said, as the company continues to roll out new products like an MRI-safe defibrillator, helping it regain sales lost to rivals that already offer the technology.
  • “Our forecast, or deal model, was built on the expectation of sequential improvement in their sales going forward,” he said. “We are seeing that.”
  • The smaller operations secured by the St. Jude deal are posting the greatest gains. Demand for devices to control pain propelled growth of 49 percent, while sales of tools that deal with the heart’s electrical pathways rose 10 percent. The company’s focus on diabetes, with Bigfoot Biomedical picking Abbott’s Freestyle Libre for its artificial pancreas, yielded 21 percent growth.
  • The outsized performances are easing the pain caused by slowing markets in the company’s former key industries, like heart stents, which was down 6 percent, and devices like pacemakers and defibrillators, which fell 9.2 percent.
  • Abbott raised its full-year guidance range to $2.43 to $2.53 per share, excluding some items. That’s up from a previous forecast of $2.40 to $2.50 per share.

(WSJ) Lessons From Microsoft’s Success in the Cloud

  • Microsoft Corp.’s success in the cloud is driving the growth of the overall business. That’s because it is the business. Cloud isn’t a satellite orbiting around the data-center sun. The numbers speak for themselves. As the Journal’s Jay Greene reports, Microsoft’s “Intelligent Cloud segment, which includes Azure, rose 11% to $7.4 billion. In the Productivity and Business Processes segment, which includes the Office franchise, revenue climbed 21% to $8.4 billion.”
  • Microsoft doesn’t disclose revenue figures Azure and Office 365, but it said revenue from these businesses rose 97% and 43% respectively, surprising CFO Amy Hood. “Azure was the primary source of our outperformance in the quarter,” she said in an interview. “It’s higher than I was expecting.”\
  • Microsoft has gained traction in the cloud, one might argue, because it has accepted the idea that it isn’t the only platform that customers use. CIOs employ other clouds and they still have plenty of use for the data center. Microsoft has crafted a hybrid approach around those customer intentions. More recently, it has looked to build data and intelligence into its cloud infrastructure, platforms and applications. As the Journal notes, “Microsoft is working to connect its business products to LinkedIn, giving sales representatives using its Dynamics software, for example, tools to easily mine the professional social network to prospect for leads.” As this process continues, expect the cloud to fade into the background, much as the electric grid has faded into the background. In a few years, we won’t think about cloud computing any more than we think about “electrical toasters.” The cloud will be an invisible and ubiquitous dimension of most elements of business.

(Bloomberg) Scripps Talks Said to Be Advanced, Deal Soon as This Month

  • Negotiations to acquire media company Scripps Networks Interactive Inc. are advanced and a deal could be announced as soon as this month, people familiar with the matter said.
  • Both Discovery Communications Inc. and Viacom Inc. are vying to buy Scripps, and are likely to fund the deal with a mixture of cash and shares, the people said, asking not to be identified as the details aren’t public. No final decisions have been made and talks may still fall apart, they said.
  • Shares in Scripps rose as much as 4.1 percent in New York to a high of $80.02. They had already climbed about 14 percent this week on news of the possible combinations, giving the Knoxville, Texas-based company a market valuation of about $10 billion. Viacom was up less than 1 percent to $36.31 at 2:40 p.m., while Discovery fell less than 1 percent to $26.98. Representatives for Discovery, Viacom and Scripps declined to comment.
  • Buying Scripps could help the larger media companies cut costs, gain negotiating leverage with distributors and expand internationally as their U.S. TV businesses faces new pressures. Network owners are grappling with a decline in subscriptions for cable and satellite services as they lose viewers to online video services and social networks.

(Bloomberg) BNY Mellon Ups Revenue View, Shows 2Q Momentum: Earnings Outlook

  • Post-2Q Earnings Outlook: BNY Mellon showed a further acceleration in revenue in 2Q, with trends in fee income and managed assets boding well for 2H.
  • Fee growth of 4% for investment services and 6% in investment management marks another rise after 1Q’s pickup, while both assets under custody and management hit record levels.
  • The updated 2017 view includes spread income growth at the high-end of its prior 4-6% range and a cost rise of about 1%, with a caveat that this would be “challenging.”
21 Jul 2017

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Wells Fargo, flows week to date were $1.9 billion and year to date flows stand at -$5.7 billion. New issuance for the week was $3.5 billion and year to date HY is at $149 billion.

(PR Newswire) Valeant Agrees To Sell Obagi Medical Products Business

  • Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. announced that certain affiliates of the Company have entered into an agreement to sell its Obagi Medical Products business for $190 million in cash to Haitong International Zhonghua Finance Acquisition Fund I, L.P. Limited partners of the Fund include industry veterans in other geographic markets, such as China Regenerative Medicine International Limited.
  • “The sale of Obagi marks additional progress in our efforts to streamline our operations and reduce debt,” Joseph C. Papa, chairman and CEO, Valeant. “As we continue to transform Valeant, we will remain focused on the core businesses that will drive high value for our shareholders.”
  • Obagi Medical Products is a global specialty pharmaceutical company founded by leading skin care experts in 1988. Obagi products are designed to help minimize the appearance of premature skin aging, skin damage, hyperpigmentation, acne and sun damage and are primarily available through dermatologists, plastic surgeons, medical spas and other skin care professionals.
  • Valeant will use proceeds from the sale to permanently repay term loan debt under its Senior Secured Credit Facility. The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2017, subject to customary closing conditions, including receipt of applicable regulatory approvals.

(Reuters) Buffett, Malone explore investment in Sprint

  • Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc and John Malone’s Liberty Media Corp are exploring an investment of between $10 billion and $20 billion in U.S. wireless carrier Sprint Corp, people familiar with the matter said.
  • Masayoshi Son, the chief executive of Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp, which controls Sprint, met Buffett and Malone separately this week at an annual gathering of business and media moguls in Sun Valley, Idaho, the sources said on Friday, confirming a report in The Wall Street Journal. Sprint CEO Marcelo Claure is also involved in the negotiations, the sources said.
  • Berkshire Hathaway is considering an investment of up to $20 billion in Sprint, while the amount that Liberty Media is looking to invest is not yet known, the sources said. Talks are in the early stages and could still fall apart, the people added.

(New York Times) Health Care Overhaul Collapses as Two Republican Senators Defect

  • Two more Republican senators declared on Monday night that they would oppose the bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act
  • The announcement by the senators, Mike Lee of Utah and Jerry Moran of Kansas, left their leaders at least two votes short of the number needed to begin debate on their bill to dismantle the health law. Two other Republican senators, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Susan Collins of Maine, had already said they would not support a procedural step to begin debate.
  • With four votes against the bill, Republican leaders now have two options.
  • They can try to rewrite it in a way that can secure 50 Republican votes, a seeming impossibility at this point, given the complaints by the defecting senators. Or they can work with Democrats on a narrower measure to fix the flaws in the Affordable Care Act that both parties acknowledge.
  • Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, conceded Monday night that the effort to repeal and immediately replace the Affordable Care Act will not be successful. He outlined plans to vote now on a measure to repeal the Affordable Care Act, with it taking effect later. That has almost no chance to pass, however, since it could leave millions without insurance and leave insurance markets in turmoil.

(CNET) T-Mobile shakes off rival unlimited plans as growth soars

  • The nation’s third-largest wireless carrier said it added 1.3 million net new customers in the second quarter, helped largely by the 786,000 new phone customers on a post-paid plan, or who pay at the end of the month.
  • The numbers underscore the fact that despite the rival carriers throwing themselves at you for your business, T-Mobile continues to win over new customers. The heightened pressure has resulted in more deals for consumers, including Sprint offering a year of service for free(excluding taxes and fees), and its prepaid arm Virgin Mobile going with an all-iPhone model with a rate of $1 for the first year of service. AT&T is throwing its DirecTV Now streaming service into its unlimited plan for $10 extra. Likewise, it was the first full quarter that Verizon offered its unlimited plan.
  • T-Mobile, conversely, has been relatively tame and quietly raised the price of its One Plus unlimited plan by $10, matching the price of Verizon’s $80 unlimited data plan.
  • Unlike in previous quarters, T-Mobile is the first of the big carriers to report results, so we won’t know for sure how well it fared relative to its competitors. The company has consistently outstripped its rivals in subscriber growth, leading the industry for 14 straight quarters.
14 Jul 2017

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Lipper, for the week ended June 28, investment grade funds posted a net inflow of $2.299m down from $2.535bn the prior week. Per Lipper data, the year-to-date net inflow into investment grade funds was $71.045bn. According to Bloomberg, investment grade corporate issuance for the week was $26.49bn. Through the week, YTD total corporate bond issuance was $746.385bn, which is down 5.5% when compared to 2016.

(WSJ) Visa Takes War on Cash to Restaurants

  • Visa Inc. has a new offer for small merchants: take thousands of dollars from the card giant to upgrade their payment technology. In return, the businesses must stop accepting cash.
  • The company unveiled the initiative on Wednesday as part of a broader effort to steer Americans away from using old-fashioned paper money. Visa says it is planning to give $10,000 apiece to up to 50 restaurants and food vendors to pay for their technology and marketing costs, as long as the businesses pledge to start what Visa executive Jack Forestell calls a “journey to cashless.”
  • Consumers at those stores would be able to pay for goods or services only with debit or credit cards or with their cellphones. In exchange, Visa is offering to pay for upgrades to merchants’ technology at the checkout line so that they can accept contactless payments, such as Apple Pay . The $10,000 incentive can also help cover some of the merchants’ marketing expenses.
  • Visa has long considered cash one of its biggest competitors and has been taking steps to chip away at it. Getting rid of cash is a priority for Visa Chief Executive Al Kelly, who took over late last year, especially as cash and check transactions continue to grow globally.
  • “We’re focused on putting cash out of business,” Mr. Kelly said at Visa’s investor day last month, adding that converting check and cash to digital and electronic payments is the company’s “number-one growth lever.”
  • Still, cash remains a formidable competitor. Check and cash transactions totaled $17 trillion world-wide in 2016, up about 2% from a year prior, according to Visa.
  • Cards have made a dent in cash in the U.S., but cash remains the most widely used payment form among Americans, accounting for 32% of all consumer transactions in 2015, compared with 27% for debit cards and 21% for credit cards, according to a November report by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

(Moody’s) HCA’s Increased ABL Reduces Likelihood of Upgrade of Senior Secured Notes

  • HCA Inc. (subsidiary of HCA Healthcare, Inc.) recently amended and extended its asset-based revolving credit facility (ABL). The facility was upsized to $3.75 bilion from $3.25 billion and the expiration date was extended to June 2022. In addition, HCA amended and extended its $2 billion revolving credit facility. The expiration date of the revolving credit facility was extended to 2022 from 2019. There are no changes to any ratings including the Ba2 Corporate Family Rating, the Baa2 rating on the ABL, the Ba1 on the senior secured debt and the B1 on the unsecured notes. The rating outlook is positive.
  • Absent any further changes to the capital structure, there is reduced likelihood that the senior secured debt (including notes and credit facilities) would be upgraded to investment grade if Moody’s upgrades HCA’s CFR to Ba1. This is due to changes in the HCA’s capital structure and attributes of Moody’s Loss Given Default Methodology.

(Bloomberg) Implications of Tax Policy Changes on IG Industrials

  • Potential changes in tax laws could have credit implications for high grade industrials. The 28 high grade industrials tracked at BI have accumulated $55 billion of cash, largely in non-U.S. subsidiaries, mainly to avoid current repatriation laws. Cash-to-revenue averaged as low as 8% for the peers as recently as 2008, but topped 28% at year-end. That suggests about $27 billion could be repatriated, possibly earmarked for share repurchases and dividends, akin to 2004’s tax holiday.
  • Honeywell, Illinois Tool Works, Cummins and Rockwell Automation are among the group outliers, with above-average ratios, suggesting they may have more opportunity to bring cash home.

(WSJ) Corporate Bond Markets Asleep at the Wheel

  • There’s a fine line in financial markets between resilience and complacency. Corporate bonds are sitting right on it.
  • Global government bonds have been shaken as central banks, most notably the European Central Bank, have signaled that the clock is ticking on ultra-loose monetary policy. Ten-year German bond yields have risen about 0.3 percentage point from their late-June lows, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields too.
  • Yet corporate bonds haven’t even blinked. Indeed, the yield spread on European and U.S. investment-grade bonds versus underlying government debt has actually compressed since the turmoil started, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. Yields have risen, just not by as much as on government bonds. At 0.99 percentage point in Europe and 1.12 points in the U.S., investment-grade spreads are close to their tightest level since the global financial crisis.
  • And credit conditions may be shifting. Activist investors are making waves in Europe: perhaps the best example is Dan Loeb at hedge fund Third Point targeting consumer giant Nestlé , pitting shareholder interests against those of bondholders. The company promised to double its leverage ratio to fund stock buybacks, yet spreads on its bonds barely reacted. Better earnings prospects should support corporate bonds; but the real benefit will accrue to shareholders, not bondholders. Spreads do offer some protection against falling bond prices, but little against a deterioration in credit quality.
  • Corporate bonds have benefited greatly from central-bank support and benign credit conditions. Shifting tides mean relying on those factors persisting looks risky.
14 Jul 2017

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Wells Fargo, flows week to date were -$1.4 billion and year to date flows stand at -$6.1 billion. New issuance for the week was $0.4 billion and year to date HY is at $145 billion.

(Reuters) Fed’s Williams still sees rate hike, asset unwinding this year

  • A top U.S. central banker on Tuesday said he still expected one more rise in interest rates from the Federal Reserve this year and for it to start unwinding its massive balance sheet in the next few months.
  • Answering audience questions at an economics event in Sydney, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said he believed a recent softening in U.S. inflation was transitory and that inflation would pick up to around 2 percent over the coming year.
  • Williams emphasized that if inflation did not accelerate as expected, that would argue for a much slower pace of rate rises than currently projected.
  • He also noted that raising rates and trimming the balance sheet were complimentary forms of tightening and his projections for policy took that into account.

(Wall Street Journal) Frontier’s Big Bets on Landlines Falter

  • The once small phone company amassed $17 billion in debt by scooping up networks across the country from Verizon Communications Inc. and AT&T Inc. It was a contrarian strategy that Frontier could generate steady revenue from residential internet and video services even as wireless use exploded.
  • Instead, Frontier has been losing customers and scrambling to cover looming debt payments.
  • Frontier’s troubles multiplied in spring 2016 after it closed a $10.5 billion deal for phone and internet lines from Verizon. The move nearly doubled Frontier’s revenue and gave it millions of new customers in California, Texas and Florida. They included 1.6 million subscribers on Fios, a fiber-optic service that appeared lucrative but hid some snags below the surface.
  • “This last acquisition was largely about acquiring fiber,” a strategy the company still supports, Frontier finance chief Perley McBride said. “It’s just integration that didn’t go well. When you double in size and you don’t do it well, it’s sort of up front and center.”
  • Mr. McBride said he doesn’t expect revenue growth anytime soon from the consumer markets acquired from Verizon last year. That is a reversal from the forecast of his predecessor, John Jureller, who in 2015 called the revenue trends “very positive.”
  • “Cable companies are beating the pants off Frontier,” said Jonathan Chaplin, an analyst for New Street Research, noting that companies like Charter Communications Inc. have invested more heavily in marketing, network equipment and customer service in the past three years.

(Reuters) U.S. mortgage activity posts biggest weekly drop since December

  • U.S. mortgage application activity recorded its steepest drop since December as interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate home loans climbed to their highest level in nearly two months, Mortgage Bankers Association data released on Wednesday showed.
  • The Washington-based group said its seasonally adjusted index for mortgage applications fell to 391.9 in the week ended July 7, down 7.4 percent from the prior week which marked its biggest decline since a 12.1 percent fall in the Dec. 23 week.

(Washington Post) Siemens and AES team up on industrial-size batteries

  • Transnational engineering giant Siemens is taking aggressive steps to expand into the ¬alternative energy market through a new partnership with AES, an Arlington-based power company that operates in 17 countries.
  • The two firms said in a Tuesday regulatory filing that they are forming a new D.C.-based joint venture called Fluence, which will sell industrial-scale batteries to large businesses.
  • Fluence will compete against established players such as Elon Musk’s Tesla, which has built out a line of business in industrial power storage alongside its electric cars.
  • “Our ultimate aim is to accelerate adoption of the electricity network of the future,” AES chief executive Andres Gluski said, “and we think energy storage will be a very big part of that.”
  • Gluski declined to say exactly how much the two companies are investing at the outset, but said the venture will be “fully funded for the next five years.”

(Business Wire) Dynegy Reaches Agreement to Sell Three Power Generating Assets

  • Dynegy Inc. has reached agreement to sell three of its generating plants for approximately $300 million. Combined with the previously announced LS Power transaction, a total of approximately $780 million in aggregate sales proceeds will be used primarily for debt reduction.
  • Dynegy reached an agreement to sell its Lee Energy Facility, a 625 MW (summer capacity rating) gas-fueled peaking asset in the PJM ComEd region to an affiliate of Rockland Capital.
  • Dynegy will receive $180 million in cash and avoid the incremental capital investment necessary to convert the plant to dual fuel status in order to meet PJM capacity performance obligations. The sale allows the Company to crystallize value in the ComEd region and generate additional cash proceeds for debt repayment.
  • Dynegy has also signed a purchase and sales agreement with Starwood Energy Group Global for two assets totaling $119 million. The combined 310 MW (summer rating) of assets to be sold include two intermediate gas-fueled plants located in Dighton and Milford, Massachusetts. The Company anticipates allocating the cash proceeds to debt reduction.
30 Jun 2017

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Lipper, for the week ended June 28, investment grade funds posted a net inflow of $724.337m down from $1.55bn the prior week. Per Lipper data, the year-to-date net inflow into investment grade funds was $66.571bn. According to Bloomberg, investment grade corporate issuance for the week remained muted, weighing in at $14.8bn. Through the week, YTD total corporate bond issuance was $714.145bn. Per Bloomberg data, U.S. investment grade credit spreads are at the tightest level since 2014:

  • Bloomberg Barclays US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS at 109, a new tight YTD and the tightest level since Sept. 2014, vs 110
    • 2017 wide/tight: 122/109
    • 2016 wide/tight: 215 (a new wide since Jan. 2012)/122
    • 2015 wide/tight: 171/122
    • 2014 wide/tight: 137/97
    • All time wide/tight back to 1989: 555 (Dec. 2008)/54 (March 1997)

(Bloomberg) Martin Marietta Will Buy Bluegrass Materials for $1.625b in Cash

  • Martin Marietta sees deal closing in 4Q, is expected to add to EPS and cash flow in first full year.
    • MLM sees annual run-rate cost savings of ~$15m.
    • Bluegrass Materials is largest closely held, pure-play aggregates company in U.S.; MLM says Bluegrass has leading positions in some of nation’s highest growth markets.
    • Bluegrass CEO says co. “ran a thorough, competitive process.”

(Bloomberg) Bayer Seeks EU Blessing for $66 Billion Monsanto Takeover

  • Bayer AG asked the European Union to approve its $66 billion combination with Monsanto Co., the last of a trio of mega-deals reshaping the global agrochemicals industry.
  • The German chemical giant’s filing kickstarts an initial review with an Aug. 7 deadline. Bayer said it’s still seeking to close the deal “before the end of 2017,” a sign that it’s hoping to sidestep a lengthy second phase probe that could add a further four months to the process.
  • Bayer has already filed for approval in the U.S. and the Justice Department could require additional asset sales to resolve competition concerns. BASF SE and Syngenta are among companies that have submitted preliminary bids for assets that Bayer plans to sell in order to get regulatory approval for its takeover, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • Agricultural businesses have been dogged by falling crop prices globally. Falling crop prices and a quest for greater efficiency triggered a cascade of deals in the industry.

(Forbes) Oracle’s Q4 Cloudburst: Why Larry Ellison’s All-In Cloud Strategy Is Paying Off

  • After a few years of lofty talk but lackluster performance, Oracle’s blowout Q4 results prove beyond a doubt that Larry Ellison’s 10-year-old decision to rewrite all of Oracle’s IP for the cloud is giving the company a unique competitive advantage in being fully vested across all three layers of the cloud: SaaS, PaaS and IaaS.
  • Ellison, who in recent quarters has called out Workday as Oracle’s primary SaaS competitor, did not mention Workday in his prepared remarks but focused instead on how Oracle is now ahead of Salesforce.com on the cloud metric of Annual Recurring Revenue, or ARR. “Last fiscal year we sold more than $2 billion in cloud annually recurring revenue. This is the second year in a row that we sold more cloud ARR than salesforce.com,” Ellison said. “We are now well on our way to passing them and becoming number one in the enterprise SaaS market.”
  • Ellison based that prediction on the breadth of Oracle’s suite of SaaS applications versus those offered by Salesforce, noting that Oracle offers cloud apps for financials, procurement, supply chain, manufacturing, human resources, payroll, marketing, sales and service, whereas “Salesforce in contrast only competes in three of these nine market areas.”
  • With regard to IaaS market leader Amazon, Ellison didn’t speak specifically about the IaaS layer, but positioned Oracle’s combination of world leadership in databases (PaaS) with its next-gen technology for IaaS as the way Oracle will cut into the huge lead AWS currently enjoys. “During this new fiscal year, we expect both our PaaS and IaaS businesses to accelerate into hyper-growth, the same kind of growth we are seeing with SaaS. As our customers begin to migrate their millions of Oracle databases to Generation 2 of the Oracle Public Cloud…we expect that our Oracle PaaS and IaaS businesses will grow so fast that they will be even bigger than our SaaS business.”
  • Ellison’s linkage of Oracle’s emerging IaaS business with its PaaS business is significant because, as he says in the comment above, Oracle is the world’s leading database vendor by a wide margin—so if Oracle can pull lots of those on-premise customers into the Oracle Cloud and away from the aggressive marketing of Amazon and Microsoft, that would be a huge win.

(Bloomberg) Pfizer’s Glasdegib Gets FDA Orphan Status in Leukemia

  • FDA designated Pfizer’s drug as orphan treatment for acute myeloid leukemia.
    • FDA awarded designation to the treatment, which has generic name glasdegib, on June 28.
    • Orphan drugs are entitled to 7 years market exclusivity if approved by FDA for rare disease.
30 Jun 2017

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Wells Fargo, flows week to date were -$0.2 billion and year to date flows stand at -$4.2 billion. New issuance for the week was $6.3 billion and year to date HY is at $143 billion.

(Reuters) Healthcare bill imperiled with 22 million seen losing insurance

  • Twenty-two million Americans would lose insurance over the next decade under the U.S. Senate Republican healthcare bill, a nonpartisan congressional office said on Monday, complicating the path forward for the already-fraught legislation.
  • The CBO assessment that an additional 15 million people would be uninsured in 2018 under the bill and its prediction that insurance premiums would skyrocket over the first two years prompted concern from both sides.
  • McConnell’s goal was to have a vote on the bill before the July 4 recess that starts at the end of this week.
  • McConnell can afford to lose just two Republican senators from their 52-seat majority in the 100-seat Senate, which would allow passage of the bill with Vice President Mike Pence casting the tie-breaking vote.
  • “If you are on the fence … this CBO score didn’t help you, so I think it’s going to be harder to get to 50, not easier,” Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said of the bill’s prospects.
  • The CBO is only able to assess the impact of legislation within a 10-year window, but it said that insurance losses are expected to grow beyond 22 million due to deep cuts to the Medicaid insurance program for the poor and disabled that are not scheduled to go into effect until 2025.

(CNBC) Report Arconic supplied flammable panels to Grenfell Tower

  • Six emails sent to and by an Arconic manager raised questions about why the company supplied the combustible panels despite a public warning that they posed a risk.
  • Grenfell Tower, which is more than 200 feet tall, was badly damaged in a June 14 fire that killed at least 79 people. London police said Friday the fire started after an appliance malfunction, adding they were considering manslaughter charges over the disaster.
  • Arconic, a former Dow Jones industrial index component, told CNBC in a statement that it is discontinuing the sales of the panels around the world.
  • “We believe this is the right decision because of the inconsistency of building codes across the world and issues that have arisen in the wake of the Grenfell Tower tragedy regarding code compliance of cladding systems in the context of buildings’ overall designs,” the company said in a statement.
  • It had also told Reuters in a statement it’s not up to the company to decide what’s compliant with local building regulations.

(The Verge) Comcast and Charter reportedly talking with Sprint to offer wireless service

  • Sprint’s merger talks with T-Mobile are temporarily on hold while the carrier mulls over a number of potential deals with the United States’ two biggest cable companies, Comcast and Charter.
  • The trio of companies has reportedly agreed to a two-month exclusivity period on cutting a deal. Comcast and Charter appear to be interested in reselling Sprint’s wireless service under their own name. That’s something Comcast has already been doing with Verizon, and it could use Sprint’s network to improve coverage.
  • Such a deal would likely involve the two cable companies making an investment in Sprint, which the carrier would then use to build out its network, generally known to be the worst of the four major phone service providers.

(Bloomberg) Alphabet Inks Deal for Avis to Manage Self-Driving Car Fleet

  • Waymo, the self-driving car unit of Alphabet Inc., has reached an agreement for Avis Budget Group Inc. to manage its fleet of autonomous vehicles. It’s the first such deal in a field that’s still fledgling but exploding with partnerships. Avis shares surged.
  • The rental car firm will service and store Waymo’s Chrysler Pacifica minivans in Phoenix, where the parent of Google is testing a ride-hailing service with volunteer members of the public. Waymo will own the vehicles and pay Avis for its service, an arrangement that is set for multiple years but not exclusive. The companies would not share financial terms.
  • Avis gives Waymo a potential asset that rivals like the major automakers and Uber Technologies Inc already have: a sprawling network of traditional cars and customers that could be transformed into an autonomous transport service over time. Avis owns Zipcar, the on-demand rental service with over one million members, largely in urban centers. The new deal is limited to Waymo’s vehicles in Phoenix, where it started its first pilot service in April after nearly a decade of research.
  • Yet Waymo could spread its self-driving systems into other cars over time. Zipcar was part of Avis’ appeal, said Waymo Chief Executive Officer John Krafcik. “One of the wonderful things about partnerships like this is that they are open,” he said.
  • This partnership is the first major one involving oversight of driverless car fleets, a business opening that could help the technology spread. It’s a symbolic win for Avis, which now has the aide of Alphabet, a pioneer in the field that is willing to heave large sums into the unproven tech. Sales at the car rental company have slipped, facing pressure from dips in used vehicle prices, with first quarter revenue falling 2.2 percent to $1.84 billion.
23 Jun 2017

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Lipper, for the week ended June 21, investment grade funds posted a net inflow of $1.55bn down from $2.603bn the prior week. Per Lipper data, the year-to-date net inflow into investment grade funds was $65.843bn. Per Bloomberg, investment grade corporate issuance for the week was $19.675bn, which was underwhelming relative to consensus. Through the week, YTD total corporate bond issuance was $700.045bn, which trails 2016 by 3%. Barring a Friday turnaround, WTI crude oil is headed for its fifth consecutive weekly drop, and while IG remains just off YTD tights, weakening oil prices are likely weighing on primary issuance.

(Bloomberg) Celanese, Blackstone to Form Venture for Cigarette Filter Fiber

  • Celanese Corp. and Blackstone Group agreed to form a joint venture to create a global supplier of acetate tow, a derivative of wood pulp used in making cigarette filters and other products.
  • The business will combine Celanese’s Cellulose Derivatives and Blackstone’s Rhodia Acetow units, the companies said Sunday in a joint statement. Celanese will own 70 percent of the venture and Blackstone the remaining 30 percent, and the as-yet-unnamed venture will distribute $1.6 billion to Celanese when it closes.
  • A tasteless, odorless form of cellulose, acetate tow is also used to make products such as marker tips, air fresheners and perfume dispensers. The new entity is expected to have 2017 pro forma revenue of about $1.3 billion with about 2,400 employees and will benefit from synergies in supply procurement, innovation, energy, equipment and other services, according to the statement.
  • “The combination of these tow assets will enhance our ability to serve customers more efficiently and reliably from a global production footprint while also creating growth opportunities for employees,” said Mark Rohr, chief executive officer of Celanese.
  • Celanese will name three members of the new company’s five-member board. Blackstone will pick the other two.

(BNA) Linde and Praxair Prepared for Long Haul in Antitrust Fight

  • Linde AG and Praxair Inc. are girding for a long antitrust fight across multiple countries for their proposed merger of equals, and have given themselves a generous two years to close the deal.
  • The two companies announced their proposed merger on June 1. The combined entity, with a current value in excess of $70 billion, would become the biggest player in a concentrated industrial gases market worldwide. It would outrank current market leader Air Liquide SA, which combined with Airgas Inc. in 2016 for $13 billion. The remaining players in the market have less than half the market position of either large firm, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
  • By setting a closing deadline far in the future, Linde and Praxair have avoided having their contract expire before their deal clears regulatory hurdles. But they face other risks, including changes in the market and extra costs to sealing the deal, Jones Day partner Chip MacDonald told Bloomberg BNA.
  • MacDonald, who handles bank and broker dealer mergers with a complex regulatory overlay, said he doesn’t see parties setting longer deadlines in his own practice. A one-year expiration keeps everybody focused on closing the deal, including regulators, he noted.
  • Most notable examples include scuttled mega-mergers between Staples Inc. and Office Depot Inc., Sysco Corp. and US Foods Holding Corp., and Electrolux AB and General Electric Co.
  • U.S. regulators examined those mergers based on a narrow slice of “national accounts” served by limited big players. When regulators draw the market on that basis, it is the scale and scope of the operation that matters, not operational overlap that can be cured by divesting a few facilities or product lines.
  • “The gas industry’s growth is defined by new projects at customers’ sites,” said Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Jason Miner in an analysis. “It’s this pipeline of potential on-site sales, rather than overlaps in installed footprints, that would likely drive regulatory concerns in a Praxair-Linde combination.”

(Bloomberg, Reuters) AT&T Awaiting Justice Department Details for Time Warner Deal

  • AT&T senior executive VP Bob Quinn said the company is still unsure what final conditions may be needed as part of the approval process.
  • The Justice Department is continuing its review of the $85.4 billion acquisition of Time Warner Inc. by telecom company AT&T , with AT&T still awaiting details about any final requirements to get the deal done, Reuters reports.
  • Speaking with C-SPAN this week AT&T senior executive VP for external and legislative affairs Bob Quinn said the company is still unsure what final conditions may be needed as part of the approval process.
  • “That conversation is just beginning really. We’ve gotten through the point where we’re produced all the data and answered all the questions and I think that process will kick off this summer,” Quinn said, according to Reuters.

(Bloomberg) Medtronic Announces $5B Share Buyback; Boosts Qtr Dividend 7%

  • Medtronic qtr cash dividend raised to 46c/shr from 43c vs. estimate 47c, the company said in a press release.
    • Dividend is payble on July 26 to holders of record at the close of business July 7
    • Buyback replaces previous 2015 repurchase authorization
    • NOTE: 15 buys, 12 holds, 0 sells before today; avg PT $92.35

(Bloomberg) Dow-DuPont Wins U.S. Antitrust Nod to Create Chemicals Giant

(Bloomberg) Committee Approves Extension of Nuclear Production Tax Credit

16 Jun 2017

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Lipper, for the week ended June 14, investment grade funds posted a net inflow of $2.603bn. Per Lipper data, the year-to-date net inflow into investment grade funds was $64.293bn. Per Bloomberg, investment grade corporate issuance for the week was $13.75bn. Through the week, YTD total corporate bond issuance was $680.37bn, which now trails 2016 by 5.5%. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday was a big factor in the lackluster primary calendar this week.

(CNBC) Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks weighs in on drug costs and health reform

  • CEO David Ricks on Thursday zeroed in on drug costs and the need for faster regulatory approvals as the debate over health-care reform rages on.
  • “We hope this is a moment where we can make improvements in the health care system for everyday Americans,” he told CNBC in an interview at the Heartland Summit in Minnesota.
  • One issue being talked about, according to Ricks, is why individual payers in high-deductible plans are paying the list price for medications.
  • “Because we’re providing deep rebates to payers in the system who enjoy those, but the small guy, the consumer on the street, doesn’t get that same benefit,” Ricks said.
  • He also advocated for faster FDA approval on generic drugs and “innovative breakthroughs,” in areas such as Alzheimer’s and cancer treatment, to help increase competition in the pharmaceutical industry.
  • Drug costs have become an increasingly visible issue following the controversial price hikes orchestrated by pharma bro Martin Shkreli and the uproar over Mylan’s skyrocketing EpiPen costs, among other developments.

(Bloomberg) Banks Leave Savers Waiting After Being Quick to Raise Loan Rates

  • Federal Reserve officials raised the benchmark lending rate to a range of 1 percent to 1.25 percent on Wednesday; the central bank’s third such move in six months. In the hours since the decision was announced, U.S. banks including Citigroup Inc., U.S. Bancorp and SunTrust Banks Inc. announced that they’ll pass on the higher interest rates to borrowers, without disclosing plans to provide better rates for deposit customers.
  • After years of stubbornly low interest rates, U.S. banks have been slow to increase offers for deposit accounts. They are seeking to benefit from a fatter margin between what they charge for loans and what they pay out to customers who provide the funds.
  • “We do think that there’s going to be a little bit more pressure on the retail side after this rate hike, and then certainly into the future,” Terry Dolan, chief financial officer at U.S. Bancorp, the country’s largest regional bank, said at an investor conference on Tuesday. So far, he said, the bank has “seen really no change in deposit betas on the retail side.”
  • At least one large U.S. bank has broken ranks. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its deposit rate to 1.2 percent this month, among the highest rates offered by firms tracked on Bankrate.com, a website that monitors 4,800 financial institutions.

(Bloomberg) Dow-DuPont Wins U.S. Antitrust Nod to Create Chemicals Giant

  • Dow Chemical Co. and DuPont Co. won U.S. antitrust approval for their $73 billion merger, overcoming one of the last remaining hurdles to a deal that would create a global chemicals giant.
  • DuPont agreed to sell off some of its herbicide and insecticide products to resolve government concerns that the combination would harm competition and raise prices for customers, according to a settlement filed Thursday in federal court in Washington. Dow will sell a plastics packaging unit.
  • The takeover is among a trio of mega-deals that would reshape the global agrochemicals industry if approved by regulators around the world. Bayer AG is seeking approval to buy Monsanto Co., while China National Chemical Corp.’s agreement to buy Syngenta AG is nearing completion. If cleared, the transactions together would consolidate the industry into four major players, including BASF SE.
  • The deals have drawn complaints from farmers and environmental activists who say the the combined companies’ control of pesticide and seed markets might increase prices for farmers.
  • The U.S. approval of the Dow-DuPont tie-up follows the European Union’sclearance of the deal in March, when DuPont agreed to divest part of its pesticide business, including research and development. The companies also won clearance from India and are awaiting approval from Canada.

(Bloomberg) Committee Approves Extension of Nuclear Production Tax Credit

  • House Ways and Means votes to approve legislation sought by the nuclear industry power that would extend an unused tax credit for new nuclear reactors.
    • H.R. 1551 extends Nuclear Production Tax credit past current sunset date of 2021
    • Bill also tweaks legislation to allow nonprofit public power co-owners of plants and other partners to use the credit by allocating their pro-rated share of the credit to private partners
    • Legislation is seen as beneficial to Southern Co. and Scana Corp., which have reactors under construction that could qualify for the credit
    • NOTE: Under current law, 1.8-cents-per-kilowatt-hour credit is capped at 6,000 megawatts and only available to nuclear power plants placed in service before January 2021
16 Jun 2017

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Wells Fargo, flows week to date were $0.6 billion and year to date flows stand at -$2.2 billion. New issuance for the week was $2.4 billion and year to date HY is at $133 billion.

(CNBC) Fed hikes interest rates despite declining inflation, sets plan for balance sheet reduction

  • The Federal Reserve approved its second rate hike of 2017 even amid expectations that inflation is running well below the central bank’s target.
  • In addition, the Fed provided more detail on how it will unwind its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, or portfolio of bonds that includes Treasurys, mortgage-backed securities and government agency debt.
  • As financial markets had anticipated, the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee increased its benchmark target a quarter point. The new range will be 1 percent to 1.25 percent for a rate that currently is 0.91 percent.
  • “The combination of a rate hike and shrinking the balance sheet equates to a tightening monetary policy at a time when inflation is lower than expected,” said Kathy Jones, senior fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab.

(Bloomberg) Yellen Doubles Down on Bet Hot Job Market Stokes Inflation

  • Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is pressing ahead with plans to normalize monetary policy, betting that the ongoing strength of the labor market will ultimately prevail over the recent weakness in inflation.
  • In a press conference on Wednesday after the Fed raised interest rates for the second time in 2017, Yellen played down a softening of price pressures in the last few months and voiced confidence the central bank was on course to hit its 2 percent inflation goal.
  • “It’s important not to overreact to a few readings, and data on inflation can be noisy,” she told reporters.
  • “The risk is that the Fed is too complacent on inflation and more than just transitory factors are keeping it from rising, and that the Fed is too confident about labor market improvement transitioning to wages and inflation,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc in New York.

(Modern Healthcare) CHS fires CEO of dissident Fort Wayne hospitals

  • Brian Bauer, the CEO of Community Health System’s Fort Wayne hospitals, has been fired in the wake of a failed physician effort to find a buyer for the eight hospitals.
  • The removal is the latest sign of trouble in the most profitable market for CHS, which has been facing hard financial times itself.
  • Bauer was removed Monday as CEO of Lutheran Health Network because “current circumstances put him in an untenable position and he is unable to continue in his leadership role,” CHS Division 1 President of Operations Marty Bonick said in a letter to physicians and employees.
  • Bauer’s ouster comes three weeks after Franklin, Tenn.-based CHS rejected a $2.4 billion offer from a buyout group that disgruntled physicians in Fort Wayne had brought forward to buy the profitable CHS division. More than 100 physicians supported the buyout effort.
  • The physicians said in an editorial Sunday that Bauer had been put in “an untenable position” by advocating for staffing and facilities improvements that were largely ignored by CHS and gave rise to the buyout effort.
  • “While this is precisely what leaders must do, it has led to Brian’s being criticized at a time when he should be praised for having the courage to say what needs to be said,” said the members of the physician group known as Fort Wayne Physicians.
  • Bauer’s removal has heightened tensions in Fort Wayne, CHS’s most-profitable market, said Dr. John Crawford, a Fort Wayne city councilman who runs an anesthesiology practice in Fort Wayne that practices at the Lutheran network hospitals, rival Parkview Health and other facilities in town.
  • “If you wanted a revolution rather than a resolution, this (Bauer’s firing) was the way to do it,” Crawford said.

(Business Wire) Frontier Communications Announces Cash Tender Offers for up to $800 Million Aggregate Maximum Consideration for Certain Series of Notes

  • Frontier Communications Corporation announced that it has commenced tender offers to purchase for cash certain series of its senior notes up to an amount such that the maximum aggregate consideration (excluding accrued interest) paid by the Company in the Tender Offers does not exceed $800,000,000, subject to the Acceptance Priority Levels and the Acceptance Sublimits.
  • The Tender Offers are intended to address maturities and reduce the Company’s current overall interest expense. The Tender Offers will be funded by the Company from borrowings under a new term loan B facility under its senior credit agreement, which the Company expects to enter into prior to the Early Settlement Date.