Category: Insight

14 Jun 2019

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance:  According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were $1.7 billion and year to date flows stand at $10.0 billion.  New issuance for the week was $6.5 billion and year to date HY is at $113.2 billion, which is +19% over the same period last year.

 

(Bloomberg)  High Yield Market Highlights

  • Junk bonds look susceptible to weakness in stock futures and oil, following gains in the prior session amid fund inflows.
  • Junk yields dropped, spreads tightened across ratings yesterday amid equity and oil strength
  • Lipper’s reported inflow into U.S. high yield funds was the biggest in 10 weeks
  • Investors demanding appropriate risk premium was evident in pricing of US Renal Care‘s CCC-tranche
  • Priced at the wide end of talk to get investors on board and changed issuer-friendly covenants to protect investors
  • Junk bond returns YTD stood at 8.89%
  • BBs were at YTD peak of 9.229%
  • Single-Bs at 8.986%
  • CCCs stood at 7.106%
  • Energy returns turned negative for the second straight session, with YTD dropping to 6.089%
  • Loans were at 5.698%

 

(Reuters)  Trump blames Iran for tanker attacks, stoking fears of confrontation

  • S. President Donald Trump blamed Iran on Friday for attacks on two oil tankers at the entrance to the Gulf despite Tehran’s denials, stoking fears of a confrontation in the vital oil shipping route.
  • Iran has dismissed earlier U.S. charges that it was behind Thursday’s attacks that crippled two tankers and has previously threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of globally consumed oil passes, if its oil exports were halted.
  • Thursday’s blasts followed a similar attacks a month earlier on four tankers, which Washington also blamed on Tehran.

 

(Bloomberg)  Dish, Charter and Altice Eye T-Mobile and Sprint Assets

  • Dish Network Corp., Charter Communications Inc. and Altice USA Inc. are among bidders for assets T-Mobile US Inc. plans to sell to win regulatory approval for its $26.5 billion takeover of Sprint Corp., according to people familiar with the matter.
  • The companies are on a shortlist of bidders favored by the Justice Department, said the people, who asked to not be identified because the matter isn’t public. The antitrust division would be comfortable with cable companies buying the assets because they are better positioned to become viable competitors with their own networks, one of the people said.
  • T-Mobile and Sprint have agreed to sell prepaid wireless brand Boost to appease the Federal Communications Commission, which also has to approve the deal. To win over the Justice Department, the companies are also discussing offloading another prepaid brand and enough spectrum to help set up a viable fourth competitor if the deal goes through.
  • They are working with a shortlist of potential buyers acceptable to the Justice Department with the aim of having the antitrust enforcer sign off on the winner as part of their approval efforts, the people said.

 

(Business Wire)  The GEO Group Amends Senior Revolving Credit Facility Extending Maturity to May 2024; Size and Pricing Remain Unchanged

  • The GEO Group announced the closing of an extension and amendment to its Senior Revolving Credit Facility. The maturity for the amended Revolver has been extended to May 17, 2024. The borrowing capacity under the amended Revolver will remain at $900 million, and its pricing will remain unchanged currently bearing interest at LIBOR plus 2.25%.
  • GEO currently has approximately $492 million in outstanding borrowings along with approximately $62 million set aside for letters of credit under the amended Revolver, leaving approximately $346 million in available borrowing capacity.
  • George C. Zoley, GEO’s Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and Founder, said: “The extension and amendment of our senior revolving credit facility, with consistent terms and unchanged pricing, is indicative of our long-standing ability to access cost-effective capital. Our amended revolver will position our company to continue to pursue quality growth opportunities. We remain optimistic about the strong fundamentals and the increasing demand for our high-quality services across GEO’s diversified business segments.”
07 Jun 2019

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

CAM Investment Grade Weekly
6/7/2019

It was a bit of a see-saw week in the corporate market as the tone was very heavy on Monday but sentiment turned decidedly more positive on Tuesday and remained so throughout the rest of the week.  The OAS on the corporate index opened the week at 128 and widened to 130 going into Tuesday morning but we sit back at the 128 level as we go to print on Friday morning.  The biggest story of the week is Treasury yields, which are lower across the curve for the second consecutive week.  The 10yr Treasury is over 5 basis points lower on the week and sits at its lowest level of 2019 and the lowest levels we have seen since September 2017.

 

$23.4bln in new corporate debt was brought to the market this week.  New issue concessions remain low, having averaged 3.5bps thus far in 2019 according to data compiled by Bloomberg.  Of course, every deal is different and some deals have enjoyed more substantial concessions than others.  Year-to-date corporate supply has crossed the half trillion mark and sits at $511.1bln, which lags 2019 issuance by over 9% according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

According to Wells Fargo, IG fund flows during the week of May 30-June 5 were +$6.2bln.  This brings YTD IG fund flows to +$125bln.  2019 flows to this juncture are up 4.8% relative to 2018.

 

(Bloomberg) Fiserv’s Expected Jumbo M&A Deal Makes an FX Pivot

  • A highly-anticipated Fiserv jumbo M&A bond deal never materialized Thursday as the company announced plans for a European roadshow, calling into question how big the dollar leg will be. Many had expected up to a $12 billion transaction funded solely in the U.S. currency. Meanwhile, two deals moved forward pricing $810 million.
  • While it didn’t bring a deal, Fiserv did, unexpectedly, announce a EUR and/or GBP roadshow just as Mario Draghi was declaring that the ECB won’t shy away from action to support the euro-area economy during a period of weakening growth. A dovish ECB and low rates potentially going lower may have contributed to Fiserv’s decision to test alternative currencies. We have seen a surge in reverse yankee issuance for exactly this reason
  • The stage seemed set for Fiserv to bring high-grade’s first jumbo deal since Bristol-Myers and IBM priced nearly $40b in acquisition-related funding for Celgene and Red Hat, respectively. Equity futures were in the black, IG CDX opened tighter and Wednesday’s two biggest deals from HCA and Parker-Hannifin were trading though new issue levels after achieving strong primary pricing outcomes. From an economics perspective, if you’re a believer in the correlation of ADP and nonfarm payrolls, Thursday offered a brief window ahead of a potentially weak jobs report. This, all amid an irrefutably stronger primary market backdrop that had steadily improved over the week.
  • Should Fiserv elect to predominantly tap the European debt capital markets it will be the second time in under a month that an issuer bringing an M&A deal has gone overseas for the majority of the funding. Fidelity National Services elected to fund just USD1b after launching EUR5b and GBP1.25b for their Worldpay acquisition. People with knowledge of the deal expected a much larger greenback portion. So much so that the USD-leg was more than 8 times oversubscribed in less than two hours.

 

 (Bloomberg) U.S. Payrolls, Wages Cool as Trade War Weighs on Economy

  • S. employers added the fewest workers in three months and wage gains cooled, suggesting broader economic weakness and boosting expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut as President Donald Trump’s trade policies weigh on growth.
  • Nonfarm payrolls rose 75,000 in May after a downwardly revised 224,000 advance the prior month, according to a Labor Department report Friday. The increase missed all estimates in Bloomberg’s survey calling for 175,000. The jobless rate held at a 49-year low of 3.6% while average hourly earnings climbed 3.1% from a year earlier, less than projected.
  • The dollar and Treasury yields fell as the data signaled the labor market — a pillar of strength for an economy headed for a record expansion — was facing new pressures even before Trump threatened tariffs on Mexican goods in addition to proposed higher levies on Chinese imports. Retail sales, factory output and home purchases have shown the economy struggling this quarter after better-than-expected growth in the first three months of the year.

 

(Forbes) Intel Charts A New Course With 10th Gen Core And Project Athena

  • Likely the most anticipated product that Intel revealed at Computex was its 10th Gen Core processors code-named Ice Lake. These 10th Gen Core processors utilize a new Sunny Cove CPU architecture and are built with Intel’s much awaited 10nm process node, which previously had some issues regarding yields that Intel claims are now resolved. Intel says these issues are behind them and that we can see volume production of 10nm with this 10th Gen of Core processors. These new Ice Lake processors also feature the new Gen11 graphics chip, which should elevate Intel’s performance in integrated graphics further to enable even better entry-level gaming. The 10th Gen Core processors announced at Computex range from Core i3 up to Core i7, with up to 4 cores and 4.1 GHz max turbo frequency. These processors target 2-in-1 and thin and light laptop form factors, so having a 4.1 GHz max turbo frequency AND 1.1 GHz GPU frequency is quite impressive.
  • Intel claims the Iris Plus graphics inside of the 10th Gen core processors (based on their Gen11 graphics) provide double the performance over the previous generation in some benchmarks. The company also claims double the HEVC encode performance, which should help with creative people wanting to do on-the-go video editing. Additionally, Intel claims double the FPS in 1080P games. While this would obviously be a pretty significant improvement, it will likely depend heavily on how the thermals are managed by the device manufacturer and over what period.
  • Intel also integrated both Thunderbolt 3 and Wi-Fi 6 into the 10th Gen Core processors, which is a pretty big deal for those who care about connectivity. Wi-Fi 6, formerly known as 802.11AX, is the future of Wi-Fi and will bring significant improvements to the quality of service, performance, and efficiency. Intel and others are doing the industry a favor by aggressively pushing the standard. Integrating Wi-Fi 6 will help to increase the adoption of Wi-Fi 6 and improve the user experience of PC users. The more users with Wi-Fi 6 devices on a Wi-Fi 6 network, the more efficient the network becomes. Everyone’s speeds (including non-Wi-Fi 6 users) go up. There are also coverage and quality benefits to Wi-Fi 6, but those are more dependent on the access point. Thunderbolt 3’s integration is also important because it is an incredibly versatile high-bandwidth interface that helps improve a device’s modularity with things like docks, displays, and drives.
  • OEMs will launch systems with the 10th Gen Core processors this holiday season, which is a bit later than one would expect with a May announcement. With the new process node and design principals, the 10th Gen Core processors are poised to usher the company into a new era.

 

(Bloomberg) Duke Energy Gets Nod From Indiana Regulator for Solar Pilot

  • Duke Energy received approval from the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission for a pilot program that allows some customers lease solar energy facility from Duke for up to 20 years.
    • Initial capacity limited to total of 10 megawatts for customers
    • Duke installs, operates, owns and maintains facility
    • Customers receive all of the kilowatt-hour output of solar energy equipment through net-metering arrangement
07 Jun 2019

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance:  According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were -$1.8 billion and year to date flows stand at $8.2 billion.  New issuance for the week was $3.2 billion and year to date HY is at $106.7 billion, which is +16% over the same period last year.

 

(Bloomberg)  High Yield Market Highlights

  • S. junk bonds have positive momentum after three straight days of gains despite the biggest fund outflows since December. Rising oil and equity markets are supportive and all eyes are on this morning’s U.S. employment report for clues on the strength of the economy.
  • The primary looks to be wide open after a number of borrowers, including first-time issuer GrubHub, increased the size of offerings this week
  • Five of the seven deals priced this week were drive-by deals, signaling that junk investors were scrambling for supply
  • Risk assets got a boost yesterday from reports that U.S.- Mexico talks were progressing towards a deal
  • This followed Chair Powell reiterating earlier this week that the central bank is standing by to act if the trade war causes disruption
  • Junk bond YTD returns are 8.117%, the best asset in fixed income
  • BBs were at 8.344%
  • Single-B stood at 8.19%
  • CCCs were still the worst performers at 6.767% YTD
  • Loans were at 5.578%
  • Investment grade bonds were at 7.376%

 

(CAM Note)  Moody’s Downgraded the Debt of Tenneco by One Notch

  • The senior unsecured debt is now rated B3.
  • Moody’s cited an expected slower pace of deleveraging, weaker financial performance, and a soft auto production environment.

 

(Business Wire)  The GEO Group Negotiating with State of Victoria to Increase Capacity at the Ravenhall Correctional Centre by 300 Beds

  • The GEO Group, Inc. announced that its subsidiary, The GEO Group Australia Pty Ltd (“GEO Australia”) is currently in negotiation discussions with the State of Victoria to increase the capacity at the Ravenhall Correctional Centre by an additional 300 beds increasing the Centre’s capacity to 1,600 beds. The 300-bed capacity increase is expected to generate incremental annualized revenues of $19 million.
  • The Ravenhall Correctional Centre was developed by a GEO led consortium. The $700 million project was financed under a Public-Private Partnership structure, which included a capital investment from GEO of approximately $90 million with returns on investment consistent with GEO’s company-owned facilities. GEO Australia operates the Centre, which opened in late 2017, under a 25-year contract with the State of Victoria.
  • George C. Zoley, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of GEO, said: “We appreciate the trust placed in our company by the State of Victoria, which is a reflection of our partnership with the State since 1999 with the opening of the Fulham Correctional Centre. We are looking forward to working with the Department of Justice and Community Safety to further strengthen our longstanding partnership.”

 

(Market Watch)  Junk bond canary soothes fears around yield curve recession signal

  • The muted selloff in the market for high-yield corporate debt brings some calm to investors rattled by the Treasury market’s potential signal of a recession.
  • Analysts skeptical of calls for a trade-induced economic downturn say the resilience of so-called junk bonds shows the U.S. expansion has room to run, and that the growth worries emanating from an inversion of the Treasury yield have gone too far.
  • In recent weeks, the Trump administration’s stridency in pursuing more protectionist trade policies, imposing tariffs on China and threatening to slap levies on Mexico, have cast a shadow over the U.S. economy, on course for its longest period of sustained growth in post-World War II history.
  • “So far, credit spreads have remained well behaved, which also suggests to us that the probability of an imminent slowdown is not high,” said Sean Darby, chief equity strategist for Jefferies.
  • One reason why some market watchers are dismissing the yield curve’s recession warning is because its predictive powers come from its ability to detect when businesses struggle to find credit. But debt-bloated firms have continued to issue bonds this year, suggesting financial conditions still remain supportive of growth.
24 May 2019

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance:  According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were $0.02 billion and year to date flows stand at $12.5 billion.  New issuance for the week was $7.2 billion and year to date HY is at $102.1 billion, which is +16% over the same period last year.

 

(Bloomberg)  High Yield Market Highlights 

  • Junk bonds will draw support from stabilizing equity and oil markets today, helped by better fund flows, after the heaviest bout of issuance in 14 months. Futures point to a firm open, following a bruising week for risk assets.
  • Yesterday’s close was the lowest since March 8
  • Futures on the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq rose today in the wake of steep declines a day earlier
  • Oil’s also opening firmer this morning, after suffering the biggest weekly drop since December
  • However, concerns are mounting that the trade dispute could cripple global growth
  • S. corporate high-yield funds swung to a small inflow of about $20mm for the week
  • High-yield index fell 0.25% yesterday, the biggest loss since May 13
  • Spread widened 10bps to 398bps
  • Index yield rose to 6.38% from 6.35%
  • The junk market is digesting $25b in new bonds, the most monthly supply since March 2018

  

(The Street)  Sprint-T-Mobile US Merger Gets FCC Approval After 5G Network Development Pledge

  • Sprint Corp. and T-Mobile shares surged Monday after U.S. Federal Communications Commission chairman Ajit Pai said he would recommend approval of their  $26 billion merger plans.
  • The FCC agreed to the tie-up following pledges from both companies to build 5G networks around the country, while ensuring “robust” infrastructure in rural areas, and to also enhance in-home broadband offerings to its customer base.
  • “Two of the FCC’s top priorities are closing the digital divide in rural America and advancing United States leadership in 5G, the next generation of wireless connectivity,” Pai said in a statement. “The commitments made today by T-Mobile and Sprint would substantially advance each of these critical objectives.”
  • “I’m also pleased that the companies have committed to a robust buildout of their mid-band spectrum holdings,” he added. “Demonstrating that 5G will indeed benefit rural Americans, T-Mobile and Sprint have promised that their network would cover at least two-thirds of our nation’s rural population with high-speed, mid-band 5G, which could improve the economy and quality of life in many small towns across the country.”

 

(Globe Newswire)  Toll Brothers Reports FY 2019 2nd Quarter Results

  • Toll Brothers, Inc., the nation’s leading builder of luxury homes, announced results for its second quarter ended April 30, 2019.
  • Net income and earnings per share were $129.3 million and $0.87 per share diluted, compared to net income of $111.8 million and $0.72 per share diluted in FY 2018’s second quarter.
  • Pre-tax income grew 15% to $176.2 million, compared to $152.7 million in FY 2018’s second quarter.
  • Home sales revenues were $1.71 billion, up 7%; home building deliveries were 1,911, up 1%.
  • Net signed contract value was $2.00 billion, down 16%; contract units were 2,424, down 9%.
  • Backlog value at second-quarter end was $5.66 billion, down 11%; units in backlog totaled 6,467, down 8%.
  • Home sales gross margin was 19.7%; Adjusted Home Sales Gross Margin, which excludes interest and inventory write-downs (“Adjusted Home Sales Gross Margin”), was 23.5%.
  • Douglas C. Yearley, Jr., Toll Brothers’ chairman and chief executive officer, stated: “We are pleased with this quarter’s results, which exceeded our expectations for revenues, margins, and profits.  Revenues, net income and earnings per share rose 7%, 16%, and 21%, respectively, compared to one year ago.
  • “We are encouraged by the improvement in demand as the quarter progressed.  FY 2019’s April contracts surpassed FY 2018’s April on both a gross and per-community basis.  Although the Spring selling season bloomed late, it built momentum.  We view this as a positive sign for the overall health of the new home market.
  • “We continue to look for opportunities to grow and leverage our industry-leading brand as we expand our geographic footprint, product lines, and price points. Yesterday, we announced our entry into metro Atlanta with the acquisition of Sharp Residential.  Atlanta was the largest U.S. housing market where we did not operate, and Sharp was one of Atlanta’s largest private home builders. This quarter we also opened our first communities in Salt Lake City, Utah and Portland, Oregon, which are markets we have entered organically and where we are already seeing healthy buyer interest.
  • “According to recent reports, builder sentiment in May rose to a 7-month high and single-family housing starts in April were up 6.2% versus March.  The industry is being buoyed by low interest rates, a strong employment picture, and a still-limited supply of new homes in many markets.  With a positive macroeconomic backdrop, record low unemployment, continued wage growth, and solid consumer confidence, we are optimistic about the opportunities ahead.”
17 May 2019

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

CAM Investment Grade Weekly
05/17/2019

The tone in the credit markets was mixed this week.  The market felt heavy on Tuesday amid trade ramifications but by the time Thursday rolled around the tone was quite strong.  All told it looks as though we will finish the week relatively unchanged as far the spread on the index is concerned.  There are more negative headlines regarding China trade as we go to print on Friday which is leading to weakness in equity markets while Treasury’s are gaining.  The 10yr is modestly lower on the week and remains below 2.4% on Friday morning.

 

Just under $30bln in new corporate debt was brought to the market this week.  Demand for new issuance has been solid and thus concessions were low, in the neighborhood of 3-5 basis points for most deals.  Year-to-date corporate supply is up to $468bln, which lags 2019 issuance to the tune of -6.3% according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

According to Wells Fargo, IG fund flows during the week of May 9-May 15 were +$4.2bln.  This brings YTD IG fund flows to +$114bln.  2019 flows to this juncture are up 4.43% relative to 2018.

(Bloomberg) Bond Traders Need to Up Their Game as AI Systems Get Smarter

  • Money is pouring into artificial intelligence in bond markets, challenging bankers and investors to adapt their skills in everything from issuing to trading securities.
  • Fintech startup Nivaura is investing in technology to automate debt sales. Dutch bank ING Groep NV is improving systems to help traders buy and sell bonds, while AllianceBernstein Holding LP advanced its virtual assistant to identify notes that people miss.
  • After taking over stocks, computers are slowly overcoming resistance in one of the most technology-averse corners of financial markets. Bond traders are wary of a one-size-fits-all approach coming from equity markets, which are now largely automated. They say that human relationships are at the center of the market and clients want to talk through complex transactions.
  • AI has proved particularly useful in replacing manual tasks such as inputting data and executing small, liquid trades in markets such as currencies. It’s only just beginning in areas like corporate bonds, that traders call “high touch” for the traditional level of human involvement.
  • Still, proponents say tech is being used as a tool by people rather than a replacement for them and that it helps firms use human resources more efficiently.

 

 (Bloomberg) In a Tariff-Muddled World, U.S. Treasuries Send a Clear Message

  • Investors are wrestling with mixed U.S. data, underwhelming global growth, and an escalating trade war. While other asset classes have telegraphed optimism, sovereign debt is signaling a degree of caution, if not abject fear, about what comes next.
  • While U.S. stocks are barely down on the week through Thursday after collapsing on Monday, Treasury yields are decisively lower. Bund yields aresolidly sub-zero. Chinese sovereign debt is being heralded as a clear winner in the clash over cross-border commerce.
  • Another note of caution for Treasury bulls betting on an extension of the rally: expectations that the Federal Reserve is poised to ease – and perhaps materially – by the end of 2020 has helped juice the rally in longer-term debt. But patience – the central bank’s mantra – is almost definitionally incompatible with a proactively accommodative posture.
  • Even Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari – arguably the most dovish member of the FOMC – does not think a so-called “insurance” rate cut is appropriate. A more hawkish member – Kansas City chief Esther George – thinks a rate reduction could fuel financial excesses.
  • If the market switched to betting the Fed will stay on hold this year, and if 10-year yields moved in lock-step with fed funds futures, then 10-year Treasuries would be north of 2.60% and trading closer to the 2019 highs than the trough.

 

(Bloomberg) Walmart Rallies on Plan to Pass on Cost of Tariffs to Consumers

  • Comparable sales for Walmart stores in the U.S. climbed 3.4% in the first quarter, its best for the period in nine years. Sales of groceries — Walmart’s biggest business — fueled the increase, and a later-than-usual U.S. flu season boosted health and wellness products. The shares rose as much as 4.1% Thursday in New York, the biggest intraday gain in almost three months.
  • Walmart’s response to potential higher levies will likely set the tone for other discount retailers, and its decisions on whether to pass along or absorb the additional costs will have ripple effects on American consumers. In its favor, Walmart’s clout with suppliers gives it more room to maneuver, and much of its food comes from U.S. sources, easing the impact.
  • “We will do everything we can to keep prices low, but increased tariffs lead to increased prices,” Chief Financial Officer Brett Biggs said in a Thursday morning interview. “It’s very item- and category-specific. There are some places where as we get tariffs, we will take prices up.” Finding alternative manufacturers “is one of a number of actions that our merchants are considering.”
  • Walmart’s response to potential higher levies will likely set the tone for other discount retailers, and its decisions on whether to pass along or absorb the additional costs will have ripple effects on American consumers. In its favor, Walmart’s clout with suppliers gives it more room to maneuver, and much of its food comes from U.S. sources, easing the impact.
  • “We will do everything we can to keep prices low, but increased tariffs lead to increased prices,” Chief Financial Officer Brett Biggs said in a Thursday morning interview. “It’s very item- and category-specific. There are some places where as we get tariffs, we will take prices up.” Finding alternative manufacturers “is one of a number of actions that our merchants are considering.”

 

17 May 2019

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance:  According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were -$2.5 billion and year to date flows stand at $12.5 billion.  New issuance for the week was $4.0 billion and year to date HY is at $94.9 billion, which is +12% over the same period last year.

 

(Bloomberg)  High Yield Market Highlights

  • S. junk bonds gained 0.19% yesterday, the most in 7 weeks, as stocks rallied and the VIX fell. This morning’s equity retreat and the biggest fund outflows since December call into the question the sustainability of the move higher.
  • Junk bond yields dropped across ratings, with the biggest decline in 5 weeks, but nervous investors pulled cash out of retail funds for a second week
  • Lipper reported an outflow of $2.57b from U.S. high yield for week ended May 15, the most since December, amid trade war jitters
  • Berry Global is set to price a smaller than expected deal today
  • Three new deals priced yesterday. All priced at the lower end talk
  • Junk bond energy saw the best performance in 6 weeks after posting losses for more than 10 weeks, with 0.25% yesterday
  • High-yield energy YTD return was 8.67%
  • High-yield returns ex-energy also turned positive, with YTD at 8.086%
  • BBs at 7.99%, single-Bs 8.25%
  • CCCs at 7.964% YTD
  • Loans lag junk bonds, with a 5.67% YTD gain

 

(Reuters)  U.S. states accuse Teva, other drugmakers, of price-fixing: lawsuit 

  • S. states filed a lawsuit accusing Teva Pharmaceuticals USA Inc of orchestrating a sweeping scheme with 19 other drug companies to inflate drug prices – sometimes by more than 1,000% – and stifle competition for generic drugs, state prosecutors said on Saturday.
  • Soaring drug prices from both branded and generic manufacturers have sparked outrage and investigations in the United States. The criticism has come from across the political spectrum, from President Donald Trump, a Republican, to progressive Democrats including U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is running for president.
  • The 20 drug companies engaged in illegal conspiracies to divide up the market for drugs to avoid competing and, in some cases, conspired to either prevent prices from dropping or to raise them, according to the complaint by 44 U.S. states, filed on Friday in the U.S. District Court in Connecticut.
  • “The allegations in this new complaint, and in the litigation more generally, are just that – allegations,” Teva said in a statement. “Teva continues to review the issue internally and has not engaged in any conduct that would lead to civil or criminal liability.”
  • “Apparently unsatisfied with the status quo of ‘fair share’ and the mere avoidance of price erosion, Teva and its co-conspirators embarked on one of the most egregious and damaging price-fixing conspiracies in the history of the United States,” the complaint said.

 

(Bloomberg)  Looming U.S. Junk Bond Risk May Shrink With Fed’s Help 

  • One of the biggest risks in the junk bond market is showing signs of diminishing, with help from the Federal Reserve.
  • Nearly a third of the $1.2 trillion U.S. high-yield market matures in the next four years, a record high proportion, according to Barclays Plc strategists led by Bradley Rogoff. Junk-rated companies have to refinance that debt, pay it off, or face bankruptcy.
  • They have years to sort out that risk, but many are doing it now: companies have issued more than $80 billion of bonds this year that listed refinancing as one of the uses of proceeds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, accounting for more than 70% of issuance this year.
  • “Companies are extending maturities out, and that’s healthy,” said Scott Roberts, head of high-yield debt at Invesco Ltd. Refinancing is a better use of debt than buying back shares, he added. “I’ve seen frothy before and this is not it.”
  • Corporations have ample incentive to deal with future debt maturities soon: on average they can reduce interest costs by issuing securities at current yields, the Barclays strategists said. Those relatively low borrowing costs are in part because of the Fed, which has paused its rate hikes, spurring money managers to pile into junk bonds in search of yield. Even with recent declines in high-yield securities, the debt has gained 8.3% this year through Friday, according to Bloomberg Barclays index data.
  • “I feel good about this high-yield market and we are trying to push issuers to take advantage of it,” said Richard Zogheb, global head of debt capital markets at Citigroup Inc. “Investors are so excited now that the underlying rate environment is more dovish, and that’s really good news for high-yield borrowers.”
  • Investment bankers say companies are taking notice of the opportunities to issue, and not just for refinancing. Corporations sold around $12 billion of U.S. junk bonds last week, the highest level in around 20 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

(Bloomberg)  China Downplays Chances for Trade Talks While U.S. Plays ‘Little Tricks’

  • China’s state media signaled a lack of interest in resuming trade talks with the U.S. under the current threat to escalate tariffs, while the government said stimulus will be stepped up to buttress the domestic economy.
  • Without new moves that show the U.S. is sincere, it is meaningless for its officials to come to China and have trade talks, according to a commentary by the blog Taoran Notes, which was carried by state-run Xinhua News Agency and the People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s mouthpiece. The Ministry of Commerce spokesman said Thursday he had no information about any U.S. officials coming to Beijing for further talks.
  • The indications that negotiations are paused will focus attention on the next opportunity for Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump to meet — at the Group of Twenty meeting in Japan next month. Their meeting in Argentina in December last year put negotiations back on track, only for them to fall apart again this month in Washington.
  • S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said this week that American officials “most likely will go to Beijing at some point” in the near future to continue trade talks, before later saying he has “no plans yet to go to China.”
10 May 2019

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

CAM Investment Grade Weekly
05/10/2019

Amid a deluge of new issue supply and a weaker macroeconomic backdrop, we can finally say that the investment grade credit markets experienced a week of notable spread widening.  The spread on the corporate index closed Thursday at 116, 4 basis points wider on the week and 7 basis points off the lows from mid-April.  China trade headlines have dominated the tape this week which has led to volatility in the equity markets that has subsequently spilled over into the credit markets.  The impact to corporate credit has been relatively muted thus far but we would welcome short term bouts of volatility in our market as that has the potential to allow us to be more opportunistic in our purchases for the portfolios we manage.

 

$45.65bln of new corporate debt was issued this week led by Bristol-Myers and IBM.  On Tuesday, BMY printed $19bln in new bonds which at the time was the largest deal of 2019 and the 10th largest of all time.  BMY was bested by IBM a mere 24 hours later as Big Blue printed $20bln in new debt to fund its purchase of Red Hat, tied for the 7th largest bond deal of all time.  It is worth noting that, although CAM is a regular participant in the new issue market, we did not see value in either of these deals so we remained on the sidelines awaiting better opportunities.  $51.9bln of new corporate debt has been priced in the month of May and the year-to-date tally of new issuance is up to $439bln according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

According to Wells Fargo, IG fund flows during the week of May 2-May 8 were +$3.3bln.  This brings YTD IG fund flows to +$103.614bln.  2019 flows to this juncture are up 4% relative to 2018.

Bloomberg) IBM Sells $20 Billion of Bonds as Market Defies Trade Drag

  • International Business Machines Corp. sold $20 billion of bonds, propelling the corporate-debt market to its busiest week in at least eight months despite turbulence across asset classes worldwide.
  • The senior unsecured bonds will help fund the computer-services giant’s acquisition of Red Hat Inc. The longest portion of the offering, a 30-year security, will yield 1.45 percentage points more than Treasuries, after initial talk of around 1.55 percentage points, according to a person with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified as the details are private.
  • The order book for IBM’s eight-part bond sale was just shy of $40 billion, suggesting some investor indigestion following Tuesday’s offering from Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. The drugmaker managed to sell $19 billion of bonds, one of the biggest sales of the year.
  • The U.S. investment-grade corporate bond market reached record highs on Tuesday, shrugging off the trade war fears that have weighed on stocks and oilthis week. High-grade issuance this week could top $40 billion, the most since September, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. High-yield issuers are also taking advantage of the frenzy — they collectively had their busiest day in three months.
  • More big bond offerings are coming. T-Mobile US Inc. and Fidelity National Information Services Inc. are expected to issue debt in the coming weeks to fund their respective acquisitions.
  • Companies are tapping the bond market to finance acquisitions after having shied away from that kind of issuance for much of the year. Just over $60 billion of investment-grade corporate debt was sold for that purpose in the first four months of the year, including about $2 billion in April, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s out of $445.4 billion of total issuance over that period. Companies instead focused on selling bonds to refinance maturing securities and fund capital expenditure, among other corporate uses.
  • Bond-sale volume linked to acquisitions is increasing now in part because borrowing has grown even cheaper: the average high-grade company bond yielded 3.6% on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg Barclays index data, close to its lowest level since early 2018. The debt has gained 5.9% this year.

 

 

(Bloomberg) Boeing Sends 737 Max to Brand Rehab to Avoid Fate of Ford Pinto

  • Boeing Co.’s 737 Max is about to join the list of brands trying to come back from ignominy.
  • Analysts are digging into decades-old safety scares for clues to the future of the jetliner — and Boeing’s finances. There’s the Chevrolet Corvair rollovers that launched Ralph Nader as a consumer advocate in the 1960s, gas-tank explosions that sank Ford Motor Co.’s Pinto in the 1970s, and the Tylenol poisonings of 1982 that spurred tamper-proof packaging.
  • But there’s little precedent for the tangle of safety, regulatory and financial issues buffeting a workhorse jet that’s vital to sustaining the surge in global air travel. After two crashes of the aircraft model in five months and a grounding that’s nearing the two-month mark, some nervous passengers are vowing to avoid the Max. Boeing has added to the mess by not fully explaining the apparent flaws in the best-selling jet in company history.
  • Longtime Boeing watcher Nick Cunningham said he’s starting to wonder if “this has become too serious and too protracted for the Max to escape unscathed.” The accidents in Indonesia and Ethiopia killed 346 people. Nader’s own grand niece was among the victims.
  • The longer the crisis drags on, the greater the risk that the cumulative effect “will have acted to permanently lock it into people’s memories,” said Cunningham, founding partner at Agency Partners.
  • Boeing is finalizing an update to software linked to both crashes, which it will submit to the Federal Aviation Administration in a crucial step toward getting the plane back in the air. A May 23 summit of global regulators “may lay out a path towards certifying fixes and removing the grounding,” Morgan Stanley analyst Rajeev Lalwani said in a note Thursday.
  • Rebuilding consumer confidence is an urgent priority, as the Chicago-based company works with airlines to prepare resuming flights of the 737 model over the next few months. Boeing must also win over pilots, flight attendants and fractious regulators.

 

(Bloomberg) Chevron’s Mr. Discipline Sizes Up Costs as Anadarko Bid Ends

  • Chevron Corp. Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth’s decision to abandon his $33 billion offer for Anadarko Petroleum Corp. bolsters his reputation as one of the oil industry’s consummate financial disciplinarians.
  • Anadarko was looking for Chevron to beat or at least match Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s $38 billion proposal, people familiar with the matter said Wednesday. But Wirth, whose deputies already had held integration meetings with counterparts at Anadarko, declined to escalate the bidding war and bowed out on Thursday.
  • “Make no mistake about it, we had the financial capacity to easily outbid Occidental,” Wirth said in an interview. “But an increased offer would have eroded value to our shareholders and would have diminished returns on our capital. We’re serious about being disciplined.”
  • The decision to cede Anadarko to a rival one-fifth of its size would have been unthinkable even five years ago, in the heady days of $100 a barrel oil when the world’s largest energy companies were focused on growth at almost any cost. But the crude price collapse, ascendance of of shale and a recognition that big deals often destroy shareholder value has changed Big Oil’s mindset.

 

 

10 May 2019

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance:  According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were -$0.7 billion and year to date flows stand at $16.2 billion.  New issuance for the week was $12.8 billion and year to date HY is at $90.8 billion, which is +14% over the same period last year.

 

(Bloomberg)  High Yield Market Highlights

  • S. junk issuers continue to rush in as if the window is closing, pricing another $3 billion in bonds yesterday despite secondary market weakness. This week’s $12 billion total makes it the busiest since September 2017.
  • The high-yield index fell 0.22%, the biggest decline since March 8 and the fourth straight day of losses, as stocks fell and VIX rose
  • Yesterday’s new issuance was oversubscribed as investors fought for allocation
  • Junk bond returns dropped across ratings for 4 straight sessions, the first time since early March, with the exception of BBs which turned positive one day of the week
  • Yields surged across the risk spectrum and saw the biggest jump in almost seven weeks
  • BB yields rose to a more than 3-month high, saw biggest rise in 12 weeks
  • Energy returns were negative for the 10th session with a 1-day break on Friday last, the longest streak since December 13-26
  • Energy return YTD 9.040%, ex-energy 8.19%
  • CCCs lost most, falling 0.23%
  • CCCs are up 8.6% YTD
  • Junk bond returns are 8.31% YTD
  • BBs have returned 8.03%, single-Bs 8.41%
  • Loans have returned 5.61% YTD

 

(Business Wire)  AmeriGas Reports Second Quarter Results

  • GAAP net income of $219.1 million, compared with $191.8 million in the prior-year period; adjusted net income of $203.1 million, compared with $222.7 million in the prior-year period
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $290.3 million, compared with $309.5 million in the prior-year period
  • AmeriGas expects to be at the low end of its fiscal 2019 Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $610 million – $650 million
  • Hugh J. Gallagher, president and chief executive officer of AmeriGas, said, “Overall, AmeriGas experienced weather that was colder than the prior year, however our results were impacted by warm weather during the critical heating months in the southeastern U.S. During the quarter, we remained focused on our growth drivers and built on our history of solid volume and customer additions in our Cylinder Exchange and National Accounts programs. Our team did a great job managing expenses throughout the entire heating season and we continue to look for additional opportunities to improve efficiencies. AmeriGas remains on pace to deliver adjusted EBITDA towards the low end of its guidance range.
  • While degree days for the quarter were 4% colder than normal and 5% colder than last year, January and February were a combined 17% warmer than normal in the southeastern U.S.
  • Retail volumes sold decreased by 4% primarily due to warm weather in the southeastern U.S. during critical heating months

 

(PR Newswire)  TransDigm Group Reports Fiscal 2019 Second Quarter Results 

  • During the quarter, on March 14, 2019, TransDigm completed the acquisition of Esterline Technologies Corporation, a supplier of products to the global aerospace and defense industry.
  • Also during the quarter, on February 13, 2019TransDigm completed the private offerings of $4.0 billion aggregate principal amount of 6.25% Senior Secured Notes due 2026 and $550 million aggregate principal amount of 7.50% Senior Subordinated Notes due 2027.
  • The net proceeds of the $4.0 billionsecured notes were used to both fund the purchase price of the Esterline acquisition and to allow for substantial near term financial flexibility.
  • The net proceeds from the $550 millionof subordinated notes were used to redeem all of the Company’s outstanding senior subordinated notes due 2020 and replaced them with notes due 2027.
  • These events above significantly impacted certain year-over-year comparisons.
  • Net sales for the quarter rose 28.2%, or $262.8 million, to $1,195.9 millionfrom $933.1 million in the comparable quarter a year ago. Organic sales growth was 11.0%. Acquisition sales contributed $160.4 million, of which $122.0 million were from Esterline for the 17 days of ownership in the quarter.
  • EBITDA for the quarter increased 15.9% to $509.4 millionfrom $439.4 million for the comparable quarter a year ago.  EBITDA As Defined for the period increased 23.5% to $571.8 million compared with $463.1 million in the comparable quarter a year ago.  EBITDA As Defined as a percentage of net sales for the quarter was 47.8%. Esterline contributed $26.7 million of EBITDA As Defined in the current quarter. Excluding Esterline,  EBITDA As Defined as a percentage of net sales for the quarter was 50.8%.
  • “We are pleased with our second quarter results and the strength of our base business,” stated Kevin Stein, TransDigm Group’s President and Chief Executive Officer. “Organic revenue growth was 11% in the quarter driven by good growth across all major end markets. Our core EBITDA As Defined, excluding the dilutive impact of Esterline and the acquisitions completed in fiscal 2018, continued to expand sequentially and over the prior year period to 51.5% in the quarter.
  • In addition to the focus on our base business, it was a busy quarter with the completion of the Esterline acquisition, our largest acquisition to date. Our second quarter results include $122 millionof revenue and $27 million of EBITDA As Defined reflecting 17 days of Esterline ownership. Please note the implied Esterline margin from this short period is higher than should be expected for the balance of the fiscal year primarily due to an elevated level of shipments at quarter end.”
  • He continued, “Lastly, our decision in the quarter to borrow substantial additional funds impacted our quarterly net income, but we believe the significant near term flexibility and attractive cost will serve us well in the future.”

 

(Bloomberg)  EQT and Digital Colony Agree to Buy Zayo for $14.3 Billion

  • Fiber network owner Zayo Group Holdings Inc. has agreed to be acquired by Digital Colony Partners and EQT Partners for $14.3 billion including debt in a deal that will
    take the fiber-network owner private.
  • The deal values Zayo at $35 per share in cash and includes $5.9 billion in debt, Zayo said in a statement Wednesday, confirming an earlier Bloomberg report.
  • Zayo struggled through organizational changes and concerns that the market for fiber lines was becoming overcrowded. In March, Zayo announced that they were evaluating strategic alternatives.
  • “I am confident this partnership with EQT and Digital Colony will empower Zayo to accelerate its growth and strengthen its industry leadership,” Chief Executive Officer Dan Caruso said in the statement.
  • The transaction is scheduled to close in the first half of 2020, pending regulatory clearance and approval by Zayo shareholders.

 

(Bloomberg)  Investors Suing JPMorgan May Redefine the Leveraged Loan Market

  • A group suing JPMorgan Chase & Co. and other Wall Street banks over a loan that went sour four years ago is alleging the underwriters engaged in securities fraud. If successful, the lawsuit could radically transform the $1.2 trillion leveraged lending market.
  • The defendants say there’s one key problem — unlike bonds, loans aren’t securities. As a result, they’ve filed a petition asking the court to dismiss the suit on those exact grounds.
  • “There are absolutely enormous market consequences if a court determines that leveraged loans are securities,” said J. Paul Forrester, a partner at law firm Mayer Brown who’s not involved in the litigation. “Leveraged loans and lenders would be potentially subject to the same offering and disclosure requirements as securities and would face the same regulatory oversight and enforcement consequences.”
  • The suit stems from a $1.8 billion loan that JPMorgan and others arranged for Millennium Health LLC — then owned by private-equity firm TA Associates — and sold to investors in 2014. Within a matter of months, lenders saw the value of their loan plunge as the company disclosed that federal authorities were investigating their billing practices. Millennium agreed to pay $256 million to resolve the probe, and would go on to file for bankruptcy.
  • JPMorgan knew U.S. officials were investigating Millennium when it sold the loan, but didn’t tell investors who were about to buy the debt, Bloomberg reported in 2015. The bankers did not provide the information because Millennium told them it wasn’t material at the time.
  • “Styled as ‘leveraged loans,’ the debt obligations that defendants sold to the investors back in April 2014 have all the attributes of and, in fact, constituted credit agency-rated and tradeable debt ‘securities,’” the lender trustee wrotein the 2017 suit. As such, the defendants are liable “for sponsoring the materially false presentation of Millennium’s financial condition and business practices.”
  • “The sophisticated entities that lent Millennium money now try to classify the loan as a ‘security’ and the loan syndication as a ‘securities distribution’ in an attempt to manufacture a securities fraud claim where none is viable, and to avoid the express language of the contracts into which they willingly entered,” JPMorgan and Citigroup wrote in a memorandum last month.
03 May 2019

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

CAM High Yield Market Note

5/3/2019

 

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were $0.07 billion and year to date flows stand at $16.9 billion. New issuance for the week was $5.0 billion and year to date HY is at $77.9 billion, which is +1% over the same period last year.

 

(Bloomberg) High Yield Market Highlights

 

  • U.S. junk bond returns turned negative across all ratings yesterday, with the index falling most since March 8 as stocks and oil prices fell. Equity futures rose this morning as bright spots appeared in corporate earnings ahead of jobs data.
  • Yields jumped across the risk spectrum, marking the biggest increase in eight weeks as oil closed at a 4-week low
  • Yields had been at 12-month lows
  • Energy sector yields hit a 3-week high and returns were negative for 6 straight sessions, for the first time since mid-December
  • Despite this, investors made a beeline to new bonds in the primary market
  • U.S. high-yield funds reported a modest inflow this week ended
  • Flows turned negative last week, for the first time time in seven weeks
  • Junk bond returns dropped to 8.69% YTD, still the best since 2009 for the comparable period
  • Energy returns dropped below 10% to close at 9.61% after six consecutive sessions of negative returns
  • CCC were still on top of the pack, with 9.175%
  • BBs stood at 8.75% and single-Bs at 8.378%
  • Loans at 5.746% and IG at 5.367% 

 

  • (Bloomberg) The Junkiest Corporate Bonds Divide Wall Street
  • Bank of America sees a further “melt-up” in triple-C debt, while Citigroup urges caution.
  • Triple-C debt has returned 9 percent this year, according to Bloomberg Barclays data, compared with a 2.8 percent gain for the aggregate bond index. At first glance, that seems pretty good. But the broad high-yield index, which includes less risky borrowers, is up almost the same amount, at 8.6 percent.
  • Ordinarily, such a return on the broad index would equate to gains of close to 15 percent for triple-C debt, according to strategists at Citigroup Inc. “The inability of triple-C credits to materially outperform has puzzled many investors,” Michael Anderson and Philip Dobrinov wrote. This means one of two things: Either triple-C securities are cheap, or bond traders aren’t fully buying into the risk-on environment.
  • Bank of America Corp in an April 26 report, strategists Oleg Melentyev and Eric Yu made a bold proclamation: “A further CCC melt-up still appears inevitable to us.”
  • The two sides: Those who favor triple-C debt argue that there’s a bit more juice left to squeeze out of this high-yield rally, even if the rebound from last year looks extreme and unsustainable. The bearish strategists are cautious about wading into triple-C debt and break down which kinds of companies make up the index. According to Citigroup, about half is health-care, energy, retail and communications companies — precisely those that have too much leverage or face a much-changed business climate from even a few years ago.

(Company Filing) Western Digital Announces Financial Results for Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2019

 

  • Western Digital Corp reported revenue of $3.7 billion for its third fiscal quarter ended March 29, 2019. The operating loss was $394 million with a net loss of $581 million. Excluding certain non-GAAP adjustments, the company achieved non-GAAP operating income of $186 million and non-GAAP net income of $49 million. Both the GAAP and non-GAAP results include lower of cost or market inventory charges of approximately $110 million in cost of revenue, primarily related to certain flash memory products that contain DRAM components.
  • In the year-ago quarter, the company reported revenue of $5.0 billion, operating income of $914 million and net income of $61 million. Non-GAAP operating income in the year-ago quarter was $1.3 billion and non-GAAP net income was $1.1 billion.
  • The company generated $204 million in cash from operations during the third fiscal quarter of 2019, ending with $3.8 billion of total cash, cash equivalents and available-for-sale securities. The company returned $146 million to shareholders through dividends. On February 14, 2019, the company declared a cash dividend of $0.50 per share of its common stock, which was paid to shareholders on April 15, 2019.
  • “Market conditions have generally been consistent with our expectations, and while the business environment remains soft, there are initial indications of improving trends,” said Steve Milligan, chief executive officer, Western Digital. “Our expectation for the demand environment to further improve for both flash and hard drive products for the balance of calendar 2019 is largely unchanged. We are executing well on enhancing our product portfolio, driving technology advancements, rightsizing our factory production levels and lowering our cost and expense structure, all of which position us to emerge stronger as market conditions improve.”

(Business Wire) The GEO Group Reports First Quarter 2019 Results

 

  • GEO reported first quarter 2019 net income attributable to GEO of $40.7 million compared to $35.0 million for the first quarter 2018. GEO reported total revenues for the first quarter 2019 of $610.7 million up from $564.9 million for the first quarter 2018. First quarter 2019 results reflect a $1.5 million loss on real estate assets. Excluding this loss, GEO reported first quarter 2019 Adjusted Net Income of $42.2 million.
  • GEO reported first quarter 2019 Normalized Funds From Operations (“Normalized FFO”) of $60.3 million compared to $52.6 million in the first quarter 2018. GEO reported first quarter 2019 Adjusted Funds From Operations (“AFFO”) of $80.3 million, compared to $69.8 million in the first quarter 2018.
  • George C. Zoley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of GEO, said, “We are pleased with our strong quarterly financial and operational performance, as well as, our improved outlook for the balance of the year. We have taken important steps to reactivate our idle capacity, and we are proud of the continued success of our GEO Continuum of Care enhanced rehabilitation and post-release programs. We remain focused on effectively allocating capital to enhance long-term value for our shareholders, and we believe we will continue to have access to cost-effective capital to support the growth and expansion of our high-quality services.”    
26 Apr 2019

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

CAM Investment Grade Weekly
04/26/2019

The investment grade credit market traded sideways this week as the OAS on the corporate index looks to finish relatively unchanged.  Spreads continue to remain near their tightest levels of 2019 which has been the case since mid-April.  It was a busy week for earnings and it was feast or famine for some large-cap firms.  Companies like Microsoft and Amazon produced some exceptional results while on the other hand Intel and 3M had lackluster earnings prints.  On the Treasury front, rates are lower by 3-5 basis points across the curve on the back of an economic release that showed inflation measures are slowing.

It was an extremely quiet week for corporate issuance as companies brought just $5.65bln of new corporate bonds.  Earnings blackout periods will likely continue to have an impact on issuance for the next several weeks.  $50.8bln of new corporate debt has been priced in the month of April and the year-to-date tally of new issuance is up to $371bln according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

According to Wells Fargo, IG fund flows during the week of April 18-April 24 were +$6.7bln, which was the second largest weekly inflow thus far in 2019. This brings YTD IG fund flows to +$97.6bln.  2019 flows to this juncture are up 3.8% relative to 2018.

 

 

(Bloomberg) A 48-Hour Reporting Delay Could Be Coming for Corporate Debt

  • The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority will likely test the market impact of delaying the disclosure of large corporate bond trades after some of the biggest investors argued that such a move would improve liquidity.
  • Finra last week proposed running a pilot program that would give traders 48 hours before having to reveal their so-called block trades to other investors. The effort would allow the industry-funded brokerage regulator, which is overseen by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, to evaluate how delayed transparency might affect corporate bond trading.
  • Current rules require that block trades be reported within 15 minutes. Brokers and investment firms such as BlackRock Inc. and Pacific Investment Management Co. have long said that such rapid disclosure can make it harder for a dealer to offload securities it’s bought, because market participants know exactly what was bought and at what price.
  • The idea for the pilot was suggested by a group of industry executives that advises the SEC. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, Wall Street’s biggest trade group, has expressed support for the proposed test as did JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Eaton Vance, according to Finra. At the same time, the regulator said that two market makers for exchange-traded funds have expressed concern that the changes would reduce price transparency.

 

(Bloomberg) Wall Street Said to Accelerate Shake-Up in Market for New Bonds

  • Wall Street is moving closer to modernizing the clubby $2 trillion market for new corporate bond issues while seeking to retain control of a lucrative business that’s being eyed by the tech sector.
  • A group of banks led by Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., has set up a company and appointed a chief executive officer to develop an electronic system for investors to request allocations of new debt, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • Other banking heavyweights including Barclays Plc, BNP Paribas SA, Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. have also joined the founders in backing the platform that was originally conceived more than a year ago, the people said, asking not to be identified because it isn’t public.
  • Bloomberg talked to 10 people familiar with the initiative. While many of its details are yet to be finalized, Bloomberg reported a year ago the banks plan to focus initially on U.S. investment-grade bonds.
  • The new system, dubbed Project Mars, aims to modernize the process of buying new corporate bonds, streamlining communication in a market that still relies on phone calls, instant messaging and emails to handle billions of dollars in orders from investors.
  • Investors have pushed banks for years to streamline the market and make it more transparent amid mounting frustration at current practice where they often over-order to secure a quota of bonds that’s close to what they want. Bond allocation has become a high-stakes game, as demonstrated by Saudi Aramco’s recent $12 billion deal which saw investors place orders for more than $100 billion.

 

(Bloomberg) Ford Shares Surge After Q1 Earnings Beat as U.S. Sales Offset Global Weakness

  • Ford Motor Co. shares were traded sharply higher Friday after the carmarker posted stronger-than-expected first quarter earnings thanks to a surge in U.S. demand for its iconic pick-up trucks that offset weakening international demand.
  • Ford said earnings for the three months ending in March rose nearly 52% from the same period last year to a forecast-beating 44 cents a share even as total revenues edged 3.9% lower to $40.34 billion as key markets in China continue to weaken.
  • S. sales, however, held steady at $25.4 billion. with healthy demand for trucks and SUVs in the company’s home market providing $2.2 billion of its overall $2.4 billion in operating earnings for the quarter.

 

(Bloomberg) U.S. Growth of 3.2% Tops Forecasts on Trade, Inventory Boost

  • S. economic growth accelerated by more than expected in the first quarter on a big boost from inventories and trade that offset slowdowns in consumer and business spending, bolstering hopes that growth is stabilizing after its recent soft patch.
  • Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.2 percent annualized rate in the January-March period, according to Commerce Department data Friday that topped all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey calling for 2.3 percent growth. That followed a 2.2 percent advance in the prior three months.
  • But underlying demand was weaker than the headline number indicated. Consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, rose a slightly-above-forecast 1.2 percent, while business investment cooled. A Federal Reserve-preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, slowed to 1.3 percent, well below policy makers’ 2 percent objective.

(Bloomberg) Occidental’s $38 Billion Anadarko Offer Starts Permian Fight

  • After being rebuffed several times, Occidental Petroleum Corp. on Wednesday made public a $38 billion offer to buy Anadarko Petroleum Corp., seeking to break up a proposed takeover by Chevron Corp. The $76 per share cash-and-stock bid for The Woodlands, Texas-based oil and natural gas producer is 20 percent more than Chevron’s $33 billion April 12 agreement.
  • For Occidental, which has a market value of about $46 billion, the acquisition would be its largest ever and the biggest purchase of an oil producer anywhere in at least four years. It would pull together two second-tier oil and natural gas producers, as opposed to Chevron’s bid to create another “ultramajor” to rival Exxon Mobil Corp. It would require Anadarko to pay a $1 billion breakup fee to Chevron.
  • In an email, Chevron spokesman Kent Robertson said the company was “confident the transaction agreed to by Chevron and Anadarko will be completed.”
  • A tie-up would help Occidental maintain its leading position in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, where it currently faces being overtaken by Chevron, which has ambitious growth plans for the region. The Permian is the world’s fast-growing oil major patch and has helped to turn the U.S. into a net exporter, also making it a bigger producer than Saudi Arabia.
  • Chief Executive Officer Vicki Hollub said in a Bloomberg Television interview that the offer is the same it made to Anadarko in January 2018. The company has also made three bids since late March, she said Wednesday in a letter to Anadarko’s board of directors. Occidental said it has completed its due diligence on the deal and has financing lined up with Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Citigroup Inc.