Category: Insight

Fund Flows & Issuance:  According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were +$5.2 billion and year to date flows stand at $11.3 billion.  New issuance for the week was $8.3 billion and year to date issuance is at $134.0 billion.

(Bloomberg)  High Yield Market Highlights

• S. junk bond issuance will likely slow ahead of the long weekend. More than $8 billion sold this week amid a rally that has seen spreads retreat to below 700 basis points for the first time since March.
• Average high-yield spreads have rallied 76bps since last Friday to 681bps over Treasuries, the lowest level since March 11, according to Bloomberg Barclays index data
• Investors are looking to past points of weakness as a possible guide to performance in coming months, according to Barclays Plc credit analysts led by Brad Rogoff
• “With corporate fundamentals likely to remain under meaningful pressure, we have an up-in-quality bias in the high yield market and prefer BBs,” they wrote in a note Friday
• Junk bond funds reported an inflow of $5.2 billion for week, the eighth straight week of inflows
• High-yield issuance is nearing $32b this month, making it the busiest May in five years. Seven deals for over $3 billion sold Thursday as borrowers rushed to clear the market before the Memorial Day holiday
• Junk bonds gained for the fourth consecutive session with returns of 0.4% on Thursday. Spreads fell 10bps to close at +681, still the lowest in 10 weeks. Yields dropped 14bps to 7.45%
• CCCs were the best performers on Thursday with returns of 0.69%. Spreads dropped 16bps to +1,309bps, a new 10-week low. Yields fell 15bps to 13.80%

(CNBC)  Powell says GDP could shrink more than 30%

• The U.S. economy could shrink by upwards of 30% in the second quarter but will avoid a Depression-like economic plunge over the longer term, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told “60 Minutes” in an interview aired Sunday.
• The central bank chief also conceded that jobless numbers will look a lot like they did during the 1930s, when the rate peaked out at close to 25%,
• However, he said the nature of the current distress coupled with the dynamism of the U.S. and the strength of its financial system should pave the way for a significant rebound.
• Asked by host Scott Pelley whether unemployment would be 20% or 25%, Powell said, “I think there’re a range of perspectives. But those numbers sound about right for what the peak may be.”  Pressed on whether the U.S. is headed for a “second depression,” he replied, “I don’t think that’s a likely outcome at all. There’re some very fundamental differences.”
• In a part of the interview that did not air, Powell said shrinkage of U.S. economic growth “could easily be in the 20s or 30s,” according to a CBS transcript.
• “I think there’s a good chance that there’ll be positive growth in the third quarter. And I think it’s a reasonable expectation that there’ll be growth in the second half of the year,” Powell said. “I would say though we’re not going to get back to where we were quickly. We won’t get back to where we were by the end of the year. That’s unlikely to happen.”

(Bloomberg)  Yields Over 10% Keep on Coming in Deeply Split Junk Bond Market

• The junk bond market has become no stranger to double-digit yields.
• S. Steel Corp. is the latest to join the crowd, marketing a $1 billion secured offering at 12% that may also be discounted to entice investors. Northwest Fiber is sounding out interest for $250 million of unsecured bonds at 10.75%, also with a discount, to help finance an acquisition. Cooper-Standard’s secured deal of the same size sold at a 13.664% yield.
• The junk bond market has rallied to an average yield of 7.6% from a peak 11.7% in March. But that number can be misleading. It’s so bifurcated that many companies actually borrow either substantially below that rate, or in these cases Thursday, much higher. On top of the big interest expense, several of the riskier companies, like U.S. Steel and Cooper-Standard, are also pledging valuable assets to turn over to creditors should they not be able to pay in cash.
• The quality of that collateral has become increasingly important since creditors balked at the aging fleet put up by United Airlines Holdings Inc. in its recent attempt to borrow. United ended up pulling the deal, unwilling to borrow at the higher 11% yield investors demanded than what was initially offered.

(Reuters)  China move to impose security laws on Hong Kong

• Beijing is moving to impose new national security legislation on Hong Kong following last year’s often violent anti-China unrest that plunged the city into its deepest turmoil since it returned to Beijing rule in 1997.
• The introduction of Hong Kong security laws are on the agenda of the Chinese parliament which begins its annual session on Friday.
• The proposed legislation, which prompted concerns over freedoms in the semi-autonomous city, comes after large-scale and often violent pro-democracy demonstrations last year, which had already pushed some wealthy individuals to scout for investment options elsewhere.
• “In some cases where clients had a bit of inertia and hoped things that happened last year will just go away, they will now step on the gas to reduce their wealth concentration risk here,” said a senior banker at a European private bank.
• “In many cases last year, we saw our clients putting in place plan B and didn’t quite move the assets out of Hong Kong. I have already received some enquiries to activate that plan now,” said the banker, whose firm manages more than $200 billion in assets.

 Fund Flows & Issuance:  According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were +$2.9 billion and year to date flows stand at $2.8 billion.  New issuance for the week was $8.1 billion and year to date issuance is at $113.8 billion.

(Bloomberg)  High Yield Market Highlights

• Barclays credit strategists led by Brad Rogoff have increased their forecast for full-year supply to $290b to $310b, driven by an increase in refinancings and general corporate purpose funding. The previous estimate was $240b to $260b
• “The midpoint of this estimate would represent the largest supply year since 2014. Several tailwinds should result in additional supply, including the need to fund negative free cash flow, as well as loan issuers’ turning to the bond market given a more supportive demand technical,” they wrote in a note Friday
• Investors continue to pour cash into the asset class with an inflow of $2.9b into U.S. high yield funds for the week
• This is the sixth straight week of inflows
• Junk bonds returned 0.22% yesterday, the third straight session of gains
• Heavy issuance hasn’t weighed on spreads which edged tighter again to +735bps, and are 10bp lower since last Friday. Yields fell 6bps to 7.93%

(Bloomberg)  New York Fed Says It Will Begin Buying ETFs in ‘Early May’

• The Federal Reserve is close to starting up two corporate lending programs that could buy up to $750 billion in debt and exchange-traded funds under its emergency coronavirus actions.
• The New York Fed announced on its website Monday that it expects to begin purchasing shares of eligible ETFs in early May through its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility. Lending through the Fed’s Primary- and secondary-market corporate credit facilities via purchases of corporate bonds will begin soon thereafter, it said. ETFs are included in the secondary facility and the program’s announcement in March had a major impact on that market.
• “Additional details on timing will be made available as those dates approach,” the New York Fed said.
• The corporate facilities are among nine emergency lending programs announced by the Fed to help shelter the U.S. economy from the pandemic and keep credit flowing. The move was a dramatic escalation of the central bank’s intervention, stepping into the corporate debt markets for the first time since the 1950s and including some sub-investment grade debt in the ETF purchases.
• The corporate programs are backed by the more than $2 trillion economic relief package passed by Congress. Businesses across the nation have shuttered to limit contagion and more than 30 million people have claimed unemployment benefits in the last six weeks. So far, only four programs are up and running.
• “Many companies that would’ve had to come to the Fed have now been able to finance themselves privately since we announced the initial term sheet on these facilities,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during an April 29 press conference. “The ultimate demand for the facilities is quite difficult to predict because there is this ‘announcement effect’ that really gets the market functioning again. Of course, we have to follow through, though. And we will follow through to validate that announcement effect.”

(Reuters) U.S. airlines burn through $10 billion a month as traffic plummets

• S. airlines are collectively burning more than $10 billion in cash a month and averaging fewer than two dozen passengers per domestic flight because of the coronavirus pandemic, industry trade group Airlines for America said in prepared testimony seen by Reuters ahead of a U.S. Senate hearing on Wednesday.
• Even after grounding more than 3,000 aircraft, or nearly 50% of the active U.S. fleet, the group said its member carriers, which include the four largest U.S. airlines, were averaging just 17 passengers per domestic flight and 29 passengers per international flight.
• “The U.S. airline industry will emerge from this crisis a mere shadow of what it was just three short months ago,” the group’s chief executive, Nicholas Calio, will say, according to his prepared testimony.
• Net booked passengers have fallen by nearly 100% year-on-year, according to the testimony before the Senate Commerce Committee. The group warned that if air carriers were to refund all tickets, including those purchased as nonrefundable or those canceled by a passenger instead of the carrier, “this will result in negative cash balances that will lead to bankruptcy.”

(Bloomberg)  Junkiest Junk Decays in Basement of Credit Rally 

• Investment-grade credit has recouped March losses and junk bonds are halfway back despite foul fundamentals and a deluge of new issuance. CCC debt didn’t rise with the tide and looks set to plumb new depths as the distressed cycle grips.

Fund Flows & Issuance:  According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were +$1.6 billion and year to date flows stand at -$0.1 billion.  New issuance for the week was $7.0 billion and year to date issuance is at $105.6 billion.

(Bloomberg)  High Yield Market Highlights

• S. junk bonds are poised to start weaker after coming off the best month for returns since January 2019 with gains of 4.5%. Stock futures are lower on concern of lasting pain from the pandemic after weak corporate earnings and economic data.
• Del Monte Foods is expected to kick off issuance in May. It’s mulling an increase in the size of its five-year offering to $700m from $500m after investors piled orders into the deal
• Other potential issuers could stay on the sidelines if the market tone stays weak.
• Issuance in April topped $37.3b to make it the busiest month of the year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
• Junk bond investors poured more cash into the asset class for the week. This was the fifth straight week of inflows, with confidence buoyed by a pledge by the Federal Reserve to buy some speculative-grade debt
• Junk bond spreads declined 14bps to +744bps, while yields dropped 13bps to 8.05% on Thursday even as the S&P 500 fell
• High yield gained for the third consecutive session with returns of 0.39% and 4.5% for the month
• Single-B spreads and yields fell 11bps to +748bps and 8.09%, respectively, and posted gains of 0.4%. Single-Bs were the best performing across junk rating tiers Thursday
• CAA yields fell 9bps to 14.84% and spreads were down 15bps to +1,437bps. The index ended an eight-day losing streak to post a gain of 0.36%

(Wall Street Journal)  U.S. Car Makers Pencil In May 18 As Manufacturing Restart Date 

• Detroit’s car companies are targeting May 18 to resume some production at their U.S. factories after the companies shut down their plants in March amid the spread of the coronavirus, according to people familiar with the plans.
• Executives from General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV in recent days tentatively settled on the timeline after talks with United Auto Workers leaders and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s office, the people said.
• The UAW last week expressed concern that reopening factories early next month — as earlier target dates had called for — wouldn’t provide enough time to develop safety protocols to protect workers from the risk of infection.
• The companies continue to work with the union on drawing up safety protocols for reducing exposure risk for workers and have made progress in recent days, although they haven’t completed those terms, the people said. A UAW spokesman declined to comment.
• A Ford spokeswoman said the company hasn’t decided when it will restart North American factories. “We are continuing to assess public health conditions, government guidelines and supplier readiness to determine when the time is right to resume production,” she said.
• Last week, Ms. Whitmer extended an executive order closing the state’s nonessential businesses through May 15 to combat the state’s outbreak.
• The May 18 start date would apply to all of the Detroit companies’ U.S. factories, even in states where stay-at-home orders are lifting sooner, the people familiar with the discussions said.
• The timing would allow the auto makers to complete safety protocols with the UAW and give parts suppliers more time to prepare shipments, the people said.

(Bloomberg)  Powell Says More Action Needed to Shield U.S. Economy From Virus

• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell urged lawmakers to deliver more fiscal stimulus to shield the U.S. economy from the coronavirus as he warned of a weak recovery even once the pandemic passes.
• “Economic activity will likely drop at an unprecedented rate in the second quarter,” Powell told a video press conference Wednesday. “It may well be the case that the economy will need more support from all of us, if the recovery is to be a robust one.”
• The Federal Open Market Committee held interest rates near zero and said in a unanimous statement that it “will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.” Officials also cautioned the pandemic would weigh on the economy over the medium term. Data earlier on Wednesday showed the economy had already shrunk in the first quarter at the fastest pace since 2008.
• “Both the depth and length of the economic downturn are extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on how quickly the virus is brought under control,” Powell told reporters, playing down the prospects for a quick, v-shaped recovery and noting the severe effects of the lock-down that has brought the economy to an “abrupt halt.”
• The central bank’s Board of Governors has also announced nine lending programs, pledging to make funds available to banks, companies and municipalities in an unprecedented use of the Fed’s emergency powers. Only four of the facilities are up and running with no set time frame yet for those remaining to become operational — including those aimed at Main Street.

Fund Flows & Issuance:  According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were +$2.2 billion and year to date flows stand at -$1.7 billion.  New issuance for the week was $17.3 billion and year to date issuance is at $98.6 billion.

(Bloomberg)  High Yield Market Highlights 

• The junk bond market is likely to see more supply with stock futures rising and oil steadying. Titanium dioxide producer Tronox is set to price a $400 million deal Friday, while Delta Air Lines is seeking to raise about $3 billion from loans and bonds that may price early next week.
• Issuers have been racing to the market, mostly to shore up liquidity. Over $17b of volume has priced this week and the month’s tally is now over $33 billion.
• New issues have been well received
• Streaming giant Netflix pulled in more than $5b of orders on its $500m offering and priced it at a yield of 3.625%, among the lowest ever seen in the U.S. high-yield bond market and in line with prices typically offered on investment-grade bonds.
• Gap drew more than $8b of demand for a $2.25b deal that was increased from $2b. Demand was skewed to the five-and seven year tranches, according to people familiar with the matter
• XPO Logistics increased the size of its offering by $100m to $850m and priced it at the lower end of talk. Orders had reached more than $4b by early afternoon
• US Foods’ $1b deal was upsized from $800m as orders topped $3.2b
• Investors poured more cash into junk bonds with retail funds reporting an inflow of $2.2b for week, after seeing a record weekly inflow last week. This was the fourth straight week of inflows.
• Junk bond yields and spreads were a touch weaker Thursday. Spreads have widened 42bps since Monday to 762bps over Treasuries
• Index returns have been negative in three of the last four sessions

(Bloomberg)  Oil Plunges Below Zero for First Time in Unprecedented Wipeout

• Of all the wild, unprecedented swings in financial markets since the coronavirus pandemic broke out, none has been more jaw-dropping than Monday’s collapse in a key segment of U.S. oil trading.
• The price on the futures contract for West Texas crude that was due to expire Tuesday fell into negative territory — minus $40.32 a barrel at the low. That’s right, sellers were actually paying buyers to take the stuff off their hands. The reason: with the pandemic bringing the economy to a standstill, there is so much unused oil sloshing around that American energy companies have run out of room to store it. And if there’s no place to put the oil, no one wants a crude contract that is about to come due.
• Underscoring just how acute the concern is over the lack of immediate storage space, the price on the futures contract due a month later settled at $20.43 per barrel. That gap between the two contracts is by far the biggest ever.
• “The May crude oil contract is going out not with a whimper, but a primal scream,” said Daniel Yergin, a Pulitzer Prize-winning oil historian and vice chairman of IHS Markit Ltd.
• “There is little to prevent the physical market from the further acute downside path over the near term,” said Michael Tran, managing director of global energy strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “Refiners are rejecting barrels at a historic pace and with U.S. storage levels sprinting to the brim, market forces will inflict further pain until either we hit rock bottom, or COVID clears, whichever comes first, but it looks like the former.”

(Bloomberg)  Distressed Energy Debt Jumped by $11 Billion Amid Oil Collapse

• Distressed debt in the U.S. energy sector has jumped to $190 billion, up more than $11 billion in less than a week, as oil prices tumbled below zero.
• The collapse of oil makes investors nervous about whether energy companies will be able to repay their debt. Energy sector distressed debt — bonds that yield at least 10 percentage points over Treasuries and loans that trade for less than 80 cents on the dollar — totaled $190 billion on Tuesday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s up from $179 billion on April 15.
• Distressed debt surged to the highest since 2008 last month as markets sold off on coronavirus fears and the oil price halved. The amount outstanding fell by nearly 50% after the Federal Reserve announced plans to buy investment grade and some high-yield debt, boosting credit markets. But after oil fell below zero, distressed debt in the energy sector could retest recent highs.
• Oil giant Occidental Petroleum Corp. has more distressed debt than any other U.S. company, with its $21 billion tally nearly double that of the next highest on the list. Oil companies made up five of the top 10 issuers with the most distressed debt as of Tuesday.