Author: Rich Balestra - Portfolio Manager

Fund Flows & Issuance:  According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were +$5.9 billion and year to date flows stand at -$18.9 billion.  New issuance for the week was $0.6 billion and year to date issuance is at $72.1 billion.

(Bloomberg)  High Yield Market Highlights

• The U.S. junk bond market is springing back into action with more companies looking to issue debt. Investors poured cash into U.S. high-yield funds with an influx of $5.9 billion.
• Borrowers have started testing risk appetite again with sales of senior secured bonds as the leveraged loan market remains on ice, according to one high-yield syndicate banker
• Junk bonds may slip Friday as stock futures fall following disappointing economic data from Europe and ahead of March payrolls that are expected to decline for the first time since 2010
• A jump in oil prices may lend some support with the OPEC+ coalition pushing for other major oil producers to join it in a deep reduction of global crude output
• Junk-bond yields rose 4bps to 9.77% but have dropped by more than 190bps from 11.69% on March 23. Spreads widened 10bp to +919bps
• Junk-bond returns were negative for the second day, with 0.37%
• CAA yields fell 9bps to 18.04% and spreads tightened to +1,772. Posted losses of 0.6%

(Bloomberg)  Investors Clamor for Credit With New Deal Demand Off the Charts 

• Investors are meeting a flood of corporate debt issuance with even greater demand, a strong sign for risk appetite as issuers continue to bring new deals.
• YUM! Brands Inc., bringing the first U.S. high-yield offering in nearly a month, already boosted the size of its deal to $600 million from $500 million amid $3 billion of orders. Oracle Corp., which was downgraded by two credit raters after announcing a deal Monday, has amassed more than $50 billion in orders for what could now be at least a $15 billion offering, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
• Credit markets are showing signs of thawing, as strong reception of record investment-grade issuance has trickled into the high-yield market. While market access was initially limited to only top-notch firms like Exxon Mobil Corp. and PepsiCo Inc. just two weeks ago, investors have since gotten more comfortable with riskier names, and massive demand has cut down borrowing costs.
• Last week, U.S. companies borrowed a record $109 billion, met with $550 billion of demand, in what one dealer called a “food fight” for new bonds. It was a similar story in Europe, where investors placed more than 310 billion euros ($340 billion) of orders for about 75 billion euros of bonds.
• “As corporates should remain keen on retaining liquidity to weather the growing pain of lockdowns, we expect issuance windows to continue to attract issuers,” Commerzbank strategists said in a note to clients this morning.
• YUM! Brands is bringing the first junk bond sale since March 4, one of the most positive signs of the recovery in credit to date. The investment-grade market continues to be active, with 12 deals in the market as of 12:49 p.m. in New York on Monday.
• Airlines worldwide raised more than $17 billion in bank loans in March to shore up finances as the coronavirus grounds flights, with U.S. carriers like Delta the most active.

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Gross of advisory fee performance does not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees. Our advisory fees are disclosed in Form ADV Part 2A. Accounts managed through brokerage firm programs usually will include additional fees. Returns are calculated monthly in U.S. dollars and include reinvestment of dividends and interest. The index is unmanaged and does not take into account fees, expenses, and transaction costs. It is shown for comparative purposes and is based on information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation is made to its accuracy or completeness.

Fund Flows & Issuance:  According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were -$2.0 billion and year to date flows stand at -$24.9 billion.  New issuance for the week was zero and year to date issuance is at $71.5 billion.

 (Bloomberg)  High Yield Market Highlights 

• U.S. junk bonds are off the lows after this week’s strong gains but may struggle as equity markets falter. Spreads have backed off from the 1,000 bps distressed level where they started the week, and robust ETF inflows help boost sentiment.
• Investors pulled $2b from retail funds in the week. This was the sixth straight week of outflows from U.S. high-yield funds
• Junk yields dropped below 11% to close at 10.33%, down 67bps, the biggest decline in percentage terms since June 2000
• Spreads closed at 959bps after the biggest drop in nine months
• Returns were up for three consecutive sessions
• BB yields fell 44bps to close at 8.31% and spreads tightened 45bps at +746
• Single-B yields fell 84bps to 10.01%, the biggest drop since 2008, and spreads tightened the most in nine months, to 937bps
• Energy sector yields dropped 63bps to 22.38%, the third day of decline and the longest declining streak in 10 weeks
• Spreads tightened for a foruth straight session closing at +2,161, down 54bps, the longest declining streak in 11 weeks

(Bloomberg)  What’s in Congress’s $2 Trillion Coronavirus Stimulus Package

• The bill provides direct help to citizens, businesses, hospitals and state and local governments.
• Big Businesses: About $500 billion can be used to back loans and assistance to companies, including $50 billion for loans to U.S. airlines, as well as state and local governments.
• Small Businesses: More than $350 billion to aid small businesses.
• Hospitals: A $150 billion boost for hospitals and other health-care providers for equipment and supplies.
• Individuals: Direct payments to lower- and middle-income Americans of $1,200 for each adult, as well as $500 for each child. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said checks would be cut April 6.
• Unemployed: Unemployment insurance extension to four months, bolstered by $600 weekly. Eligibility would be expanded to cover more workers.
• Restrictions on Business Aid: Any company receiving a government loan would be subject to a ban on stock buybacks through the term of the loan plus one additional year. They also would have to limit executive bonuses and take steps to protect workers.
• Transparency: The Treasury Department would have to disclose the terms of loans or other aid to companies, and a new Treasury inspector general would oversee the lending program.

(Bloomberg)   Distressed Debt Balloons to Almost $1 Trillion, Nears 2008 Peak

• The amount of distressed debt in the U.S. has quadrupled in less than a week to nearly $1 trillion, reaching levels not seen since 2008 as the collapse of oil prices and fallout from the coronavirus shutters entire industries across the globe.
• In total, the tally has ballooned to $934 billion of U.S. corporate bonds that yield at least 10 percentage points above Treasuries and loans that trade for less than 80 cents on the dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
• The coronavirus pandemic has caused the worst sell-off since the global financial crisis and deepened stress in credit markets. Driven by some of the lowest oil prices since the early 2000s, the amount of distressed bonds has surged to the highest level since April 2009.
• Most of the distressed debt outstanding stems from U.S. energy companies battered by less travel demand and an all-out price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The capital-intensive industry, which financed its shale production largely through debt, suddenly faces the prospect of deeper losses after oil plunged below $20 a barrel. Last month, it traded above $50.
• The amount of distressed debt tied to the oil and gas sector stands at over $161 billion, up from $128 billion a week ago. One of the biggest casualties has been Occidental Petroleum Corp., which has seen its funding costs skyrocket and its credit rating cut to make it the biggest fallen angel in the current downgrade cycle. Oxy’s bonds led the list of high-yield losers on Wednesday, with four of its issues among the top 10 decliners.
• Energy isn’t alone. Every sector except utilities is under stress, with distressed ratios growing by double or triple digits. Telecommunications, retail, entertainment and healthcare industries make up the bulk of distressed debt. Retailers such as Neiman Marcus Group Inc. and theater chains such as AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. have been hit hard as companies are forced to close and customers are told to stay home.
• S. junk bonds entered distressed territory for the first time since the global financial crisis after spreads on the securities topped 1,000 basis points at the end of last week. The index move marks a period of turmoil in the credit markets as investors flee funds that buy all types of corporate debt.

(Bloomberg)  Ford Becomes Largest Fallen Angel After S&P Downgrade to Junk

• Ford Motor Co. was cut to junk by S&P Global Ratings as the coronavirus pandemic delivers a shock to the global auto industry and renders the carmaker the largest fallen angel to date.
• S&P downgraded Ford’s credit rating one notch to BB+ and may cut it further, according to a statement. The move follows Moody’s Investors Service, which dropped its rating Ford for the second time in sixth months earlier Wednesday. Its two high-yield ratings will remove its $35.8 billion of debt from the Bloomberg Barclays investment-grade index at the end of the month.
• Ford is one of many auto companies facing what Moody’s calls an unprecedented “credit shock,” with the coronavirus outbreak also posing a major threat to peers including General Motors Co. and Volkswagen AG. But Ford is particularly at risk because of the problems it’s been having with executing an $11billion restructuring that’s yet to improve performance.
• “Ford is managing through the coronavirus crisis in a way that safeguards our business, our workforce, our customers and our dealers,” the company said in an emailed statement. “We plan to emerge from this crisis as a stronger company.”

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Gross of advisory fee performance does not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees. Our advisory fees are disclosed in Form ADV Part 2A. Accounts managed through brokerage firm programs usually will include additional fees. Returns are calculated monthly in U.S. dollars and include reinvestment of dividends and interest. The index is unmanaged and does not take into account fees, expenses, and transaction costs. It is shown for comparative purposes and is based on information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation is made to its accuracy or completeness.

Fund Flows & Issuance:  According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were -$5.3 billion and year to date flows stand at -$22.9 billion.  New issuance for the week was zero and year to date issuance is at $71.5 billion.

 (Bloomberg)  High Yield Market Highlights 

• U.S. junk bonds may pare losses Friday with stock futures higher and oil extending a recovery. But the asset class has lost the most in any month so far since 2008, and investors pulled billions of dollars of cash from funds.
• Yet the junk-bond index has posted losses for 11 straight sessions, with 2.63% on Thursday alone. The asset class has lost 17.6% year-to-date and 16.46% in March, the biggest monthly loss since 2008
• High-yield spreads widened 72bps Thursday to 976bps. Single-B spreads widened 78bps to 990bps. That’s very close to the 1,000bps that’s typically considered distressed
• In less than two weeks, the amount of distressed debt in the U.S. has doubled to a half-trillion dollars as the collapse of oil prices and the fallout from the coronavirus shutters entire industries.
• Junk-bond yields jumped 63bps to close at 10.75%, the highest since September 2009
• Energy-bond yields surged to a new 20-year high of 23.69%, with the index losing more than 37% this month
• High-yield bonds with more than $1.37b outstanding are trading above upcoming call prices, making it attractive for issuers to redeem the securities in the next three months. But that’s down 70% from the prior week, and the primary market hasn’t seen a deal price since March 4

(Bloomberg)  Junk Debt Market Freeze Risks $35 Billion Banker Headache

• Banks that agreed to help private equity firms and highly leveraged companies fund recent acquisitions may have to come up with billions of dollars of their own cash
  to finance the deals if the market for risky debt remains shut.
• Underwriters across Wall Street have committed to providing more than $30 billion to junk-rated companies by mid-year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and people with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be identified because not authorized to speak publicly.
• But with the markets for leveraged loans and high-yield bonds virtually shut since the Covid-19 pandemic triggered fears of a global recession, the banks now face the prospect that they might not be able to offload the risk before the takeovers are scheduled to close.
• The exposure is a small fraction of the commitments they held heading into the 2008 financial crisis. Still, it could force banks to take losses or tie up capital for months just as
  dozens of companies are drawing credit lines or seeking fresh financing to cope with the coronavirus fallout.
• The deals run the gamut of sectors and geographies, ranging from an $11 billion financing for the leveraged buyout of ThyssenKrupp’s elevator unit in Europe to a $500 million debt deal for Culligan’s acquisition of water-filtration company AquaVenture.
• Representatives for lead arrangers including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Deutsche Bank AG, Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and Barclays Plc declined to comment.
• For the vast majority of deals, the acquisitions themselves are not in doubt. If the banks are unable to syndicate the loans to institutional investors before closing, they are typically required to come up with the cash, and may try to offload the debt at a later date.

Fund Flows & Issuance:  According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were -$0.1 billion and year to date flows stand at $2.0 billion.  New issuance for the week was $3.1 billion and year to date issuance is at $63.7 billion.

(Bloomberg)  High Yield Market Highlights

• It’s looking like a risk-off day in the junk-bond market as stock futures fall amid renewed concerns about the spread of the coronavirus outside China.
• CAA yields, meanwhile, have crossed the 10% mark for the first time in three weeks.
• Issuers are likely to remain on the sidelines Friday and the calendar is light, though Bausch Health is expected to emerge with a $3.25b junk-bond that’s part of a broader $8b refinancing
• Yields rose 4bps to 5.13%, the biggest jump in three weeks though the index posted a modest gain of 0.018%
• BA yields rose 4ps to 3.64%, single-B yields rose to 5%

(Bloomberg)  Macy’s, Renault Add to Fallen Angel Fear With Downgrades to Junk

• The credit-rating downgrades of Macy’s Inc. and Renault SA to junk status are rekindling fears among investors of a potential uptick in so-called fallen angels after a run of relative tranquility in the U.S. corporate bond market.
• The American retailer and French carmaker each lost an investment-grade rating Tuesday, affecting billions of dollars of debt. They follow Kraft Heinz Co., the iconic U.S. packaged-food company, which was downgraded to junk by two credit raters last Friday as its turnaround shows little signs of progress.
• Even though Macy’s and Renault were downgraded for idiosyncratic reasons and will still trade in investment-grade indexes unless another credit-rating company follows suit, their cuts bring back to the fore what had been a central concern among investors less than two years ago: That a slowing global economy could hamper companies’ ability to service their obligations, especially those that had taken on significant debt loads to finance deals.
• While many firms took actions to reduce debt levels in 2019, several are still proving to be susceptible to ratings risk. Kraft Heinz alone, with around $21 billion of debt leaving the Bloomberg Barclays investment-grade index at the end of this month, nearly eclipses last year’s fallen angel volume of just under $22 billion, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists. Macy’s has about $8 billion of total debt, while Renault’s roughly $66 billion is predominantly denominated in euros and yen, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
• By year-end, the volume of fallen angels is likely to dwarf that of 2019, according UBS Group AG strategists led by Matthew Mish. They predict there could be as much as $90 billion of investment-grade debt downgraded to high yield this year. Guggenheim Partners has said as much as 20% of BBBs in the U.S., or $660 billion, will get cut to junk in the next downgrade wave.

(Reuters)  U.S. labor market remains strong; manufacturing likely stabilizing

• The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose modestly last week, suggesting sustained labor market strength that could help to support the economy amid risks from the coronavirus and weak business investment.
• There was encouraging news on the struggling manufacturing sector, with other data on Thursday showing factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region accelerated to a three-year high in February, likely as tensions in the 19-month trade war between the United States and China diminished.
• But the coronavirus, which has killed more than 2,000 people, mostly in China, and Boeing’s suspension last month of the production of its troubled 737 MAX jetliner, grounded in March 2019 after two fatal crashes, continue to loom over the manufacturing sector.
• Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Jan. 28-29 meeting published on Wednesday showed policymakers “expected economic growth to continue at a moderate pace,” but expressed concern about possible economic risks from the coronavirus, which has also infected thousands globally.
• “Manufacturing growth may be past its trough,” said Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. “However, looking ahead we continue to believe that activity will advance at a lackluster pace as global growth and trade policy headwinds are unlikely to significantly relent and the negative impact of the coronavirus will be felt via global supply chains interlinkages.”

(Bloomberg)  Aecom Conference Cancellation May Increase Deal Rumblings

• Reports on Aecom not attending two industrial conferences this week are being “seen as a positive indication that the company might be in later-stage negotiations for a deal,” Baird analyst Andrew Wittmann wrote in a note.
• Baird confirmed that Aecom canceled from a Citi conference, and is not in attendance at a Barclays conference
• Wittmann noted previous reports that Aecom had been approached by WSP Global regarding a deal

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were $2.4 billion and year to date flows stand at $3.7 billion. New issuance for the week was $12.4 billion and year to date issuance is at $60.6 billion.

(Bloomberg) High Yield Market Highlights

• Zayo Group Holdings Inc. is readying more than $3 billion of junk bonds, one of the biggest buyout financings since 2018 that may test investor appetite for riskier debt in the CAA tier.
• The new notes, along with a leveraged loan package totaling more than $5b, will finance Zayo’s buyout by private equity firms Digital Colony Partners and EQT Partners
• The bond portion of the offering may include $1b of seven-year secured notes and $2.1b of unsecured eight-year bonds, and marketing begins next Tuesday
• It’s hitting the market after two straight weeks of gains for junk- bonds, which looks set to continue on Friday as stock futures edge higher and oil climbs
• Triple C rated bonds have lagged the broader high-yield market so far this year, returning 0.942% through Thursday while the larger junk universe rose 1.11%
• Yet CAA index yields have still fallen to a nine-month low of 9.71% and posted positive returns for three consecutive sessions this week. Other issuers, including Hecla Mining, have also priced debt in this rating range
• Investors have plenty of cash to put to work too after corporate high-yield funds reported inflows
• BA and single-B yields have fallen to a three- week low of 3.59% and 5%, respectively
• BAs have gained for ten straight sessions, taking year-to-date returns to 1.175%  

• (Bloomberg) Natural Gas Tumbles to 4-Year Low on ‘Epic’ U.S. Demand Loss

• Natural gas futures sank to a four-year low as the latest U.S. forecasts all but eliminated bulls’ hopes for a late-winter cold push.
• Frigid weather in parts of the Midwest and West this week won’t stick around for long, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC. Mild temperatures are poised to blanket the eastern half of the country in late February, a shift from previous outlooks that showed a lingering chill.
• Unusually warm winter weather has wreaked havoc on gas demand, allowing an onslaught of supply from shale basins to overwhelm the market. American liquefied natural gas cargoes, a key outlet for production, are at risk of being curtailed as the coronavirus outbreak in China curbs consumption in the world’s second-largest economy. The resulting collapse in global gas prices is squeezing profits for U.S. exporters.
• “The lack of heating demand is epic. It’s a worst-case scenario,” John Kilduff, founding partner at hedge fund Again Capital LLC in New York, said by phone. “We continue to have a very weak demand environment that’s persisted all winter.”
• The gas glut has been especially severe in the Permian Basin, where local prices for March delivery have dropped below zero. Output from the West Texas and New Mexico shale play, where gas is extracted as a byproduct of oil drilling, is increasing so fast there isn’t enough space on pipelines to take it away.  

(Reuters) T-Mobile-Sprint merger wins approval from U.S. judge

• T-Mobile edged closer to a takeover of Sprint Corp after a federal judge on Tuesday approved the deal, rejecting a claim by a group of states that said the proposed transaction would violate antitrust laws and raise prices.
• During a two-week trial in December, T-Mobile and Sprint argued the merger will better equip the new company to compete with top players Verizon Communications Inc and AT&T Inc as the third-largest U.S. wireless carrier, creating a more efficient company with low prices and faster internet speeds.
• Finalizing a deal will be a boon to Japan’s Softbank Group Corp, Sprint’s controlling shareholder, as the conglomerate offloads a troubled asset that has lost subscribers at a faster rate and as it seeks to secure funding for a second Vision Fund.
• Sprint and T-Mobile said in a statement that they would move to finalize the merger, which is still subject to closing conditions and possible additional court proceedings.
• A spokesman for the California Public Utilities Commission, the last regulatory body to decide on the merger, said its review of the deal is expected to conclude in July.

(Wall Street Journal) MGM Resorts Chief Set To Step Down

• MGM Resorts International Chief Executive Jim Murren will leave the global casino operator after its board picks his successor, the company said.
• Mr. Murren, who is also stepping down as chairman, has led the company since 2008. He is leaving before his contract expires at the end of 2021.
• “When I thought through how I could best serve MGM going forward, I thought it was pretty clear that a leader should help lead a company into the next decade or two,” Mr. Murren said on a conference call with Wall Street analysts on Wednesday. “I wanted to make sure the board had the time, which it will use promptly, to do a robust search and find my successor.”
• MGM Resorts, which has a market value of $17 billion, didn’t give a firm date for Mr. Murren’s departure. The board has formed a search committee to find a new CEO, the company said. Mr. Murren said he anticipates being on MGM Resorts’ next quarterly earnings call, in about three months.
• The company has sold off much of its real estate, including deals with MGM Growth Properties, a real-estate investment trust MGM Resorts spun off in 2016, and other property deals. The company’s “asset-light” strategy is intended to pull cash out of the company’s valuable real estate, including prime locations on the Las Vegas Strip.
• MGM Resorts’ remaining company-owned real estate includes MGM Springfield in Massachusetts, a 50% stake in CityCenter in Las Vegas and more than half of MGM Growth Properties.  

Fund Flows & Issuance:  According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were $0.1 billion and year to date flows stand at $1.2 billion.  New issuance for the week was $12.5 billion and year to date issuance is at $48.2 billion.

(Bloomberg)  High Yield Market Highlights 

• New issues have been well-received
• Yet it’s looking like a risk-off day as stock futures slide on renewed fears of the spread of the coronavirus
• Junk- bond yields have fallen 24bps in the past week. At 5.28%, they’re just 30bps off the 5.5-year low hit on Jan. 21
• Spreads have tightened 34bps over the same period to 356bps over Treasuries
• Even riskier debt has rallied with yields on CAAs falling below 10% for the first time in two weeks to 9.95%
• Junk- bond investors are pouring money back into exchange-traded funds again
• HYG and JNK, the two biggest high-yield ETFs, reported a combined inflow of $325m yesterday after $630m the previous day

(New York Times)  Some Takeaways From Trump’s State of the Union Address

• President Trump framed his third year in office as an unmistakable success and his fourth as more of the same.
• A partisan atmosphere loomed over the House floor from the very start of Mr. Trump’s speech, when Republican lawmakers chanted “four more years” after the president stepped up to the rostrum. The hostility carried through to the end, when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ripped up a copy of the address after he finished delivering it.
• He proclaimed that the economy was setting records, that American enemies were on the defense, and that the American spirit had been renewed.
• “In just three short years, we have shattered the mentality of American decline and we have rejected the downsizing of America’s destiny,” he said. “We are moving forward at a pace that was unimaginable just a short time ago and we are never going back.”
• Trump dived into the state of the economy at the top of the speech, making broad declarations about tax cuts, deregulation and the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the new version of which he signed into law last week.
• Trump addressed two pieces of potential health care legislation that remain a top priority for both parties in the coming months: surprise billing and prescription drugs.
• After signing an initial trade deal with China last month, Mr. Trump pointed on Tuesday to the tariffs he has imposed on the country in order to take on its “massive theft of America’s jobs.” He said that “our strategy has worked.”
• Trump’s attention on foreign policy later swung to the Middle East, when he highlighted two people his administration killed in recent months: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State, and Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the powerful Iranian commander.

(Wall Street Journal)  Ford’s Operating Income Plunges

• Ford Motor Co. said fourth-quarter operating income sank by two-thirds, and it issued a lower-than-expected profit outlook for 2020, the latest signs of trouble for Chief Executive Jim Hackett’s turnaround plan.
• Ford said operating income for the October-to-December period was $485 million, down from $1.5 billion a year earlier. Earnings per share adjusted for one-time items were 12 cents, well short of analysts’ estimate of 17 cents.
• The company’s financial standing has continued to weaken under Mr. Hackett, who was brought in nearly three years ago to revive the auto maker’s profit growth and give it a stronger vision for the future.
• Revenue for the full year dropped 3% to $155.9 billion.
• “Financially, it wasn’t OK,” finance chief Tim Stone said of the 2019 results during a discussion with reporters at Ford’s headquarters. “Strategically. . .I think we made strong progress.”
• Ford pinned the shortfall in part on lower production volumes in North America stemming from problems with launches of key models, including the redesigned Explorer and Escape sport-utility vehicles and its Super Duty pickup truck. It also cited higher warranty costs and a bonus payout to United Auto Workers that totaled about $600 million.
• The auto maker forecast operating profit this year of $5.6 billion to $6.6 billion, compared with $6.38 billion last year. That equals an earnings-per-share range of 94 cents to $1.20, which is lower than the average analysts’ estimate of $1.30, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
• Hackett’s strategy to revitalize Ford — which includes a multiyear, multibillion-dollar restructuring — hasn’t returned the company to earnings growth or restored profitability overseas, where Ford is closing plants and shedding thousands of workers to cut costs.
• “Financially, the company’s 2019 performance was short of our original expectations, mostly because our operational execution — which we usually do very well — wasn’t nearly good enough,” Mr. Hackett said. “We recognize, take accountability for and have made changes because of this.”
• In a bright spot for the year, Ford trimmed its losses in overseas markets. It halved its China loss, to $771 million from $1.55 billion, which it attributed to cost cutting. In Europe, the company had a $47 million loss for the year, down from a $398 million loss a year earlier.

Fund Flows & Issuance:  According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were -$2.7 billion.  New issuance for the week was $8.2 billion and year to date HY is at $35.7 billion.

(Bloomberg)  High Yield Market Highlights

• S. junk-bonds are heading for their second weekly loss amid fears about the spreading coronavirus from China. Investors pulled $2.7 billion from high-yield retail funds, the biggest cash withdrawal in almost six months, and exchange-traded funds are continuing to leak cash.
• Junk-bond returns turned negative for the second time this week posting a loss of 0.16% Thursday. The CAA index posted losses of 0.17% and is also set for its second weekly declines
• Those falls may extend Friday with stock futures lower. Oil prices are higher this morning, but fell to an almost six-month low on Thursday, weighing on the high-yield energy index
• Junk bond yields rose 9 basis points to 5.49%, the biggest weekly jump since October, while spreads widened 11 basis points to 382 basis points over Treasuries
• Single-B yields jumped 10 basis points to 5.46%, while CAA yields rose 9 basis points to 10.32%
• The two biggest high-yield ETFs — HYG and JNK — saw a combined outflow of $547 million in the last session as outflows continue

(Business Wire)  Arconic Reports Financial Results

• Arconic Inc. reported fourth quarter 2019 and full year 2019 results. The Company reported fourth quarter revenues of $3.4 billion, down 2% year over year. Organic revenue was up 1% year over year on growth in the aerospace, packaging and industrial markets and favorable product pricing, largely offset by weakness in the automotive, commercial transportation, and building and construction markets.
• Operating income excluding special items was $444 million, up 37% year over year, driven by net cost reductions, favorable product pricing, and favorable aluminum and raw material costs, partially offset by lower volumes in automotive and commercial transportation. Full year 2019 operating income was $1.0 billion versus $1.3 billion in the full year 2018. Operating income excluding special items for full year 2019 was $1.8 billion versus $1.4 billion in the full year 2018, driven by favorable product pricing; net cost reductions; volume growth in aerospace, packaging and commercial transportation markets; and favorable aluminum and raw material costs. These impacts were partially offset by unfavorable product mix.
• Arconic Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John Plant said, “In 2019, the Arconic team delivered improved revenue, adjusted operating income, adjusted operating income margin, adjusted free cash flow and adjusted earnings per share. Arconic’s 2019 return on net assets improved by 450 basis points year over year to 13.7%.”

(Bloomberg)  Fed Holds Main Rate as Powell Stresses Need to Hit 2% Inflation

• The Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged and continued to signal policy would stay on hold for the time being, while stressing the importance of lifting inflation to officials’ target.
• The central bank also made a technical adjustment to the rate it pays on reserve balances and said it would extend at least through April a program aimed at smoothing volatility in
  money markets.
• “We believe monetary policy is well positioned to serve the American people by supporting continued economic growth,” Chairman Jerome Powell told a press conference Wednesday in Washington.
• Officials kept the target range of the benchmark federal funds rate at 1.5% to 1.75% and called that stance “appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity.”
• S. stocks erased gains while yields on the 10-year Treasury note declined and the dollar fluctuated. Traders extended bets the Fed would cut rates toward the end of this year.
• “The Fed has made it clear that the barriers to move in either direction are quite high,” said said Daniel Ahn, the chief U.S. economist at BNP Paribas. “But we believe the wall
  for a cut is lower than the wall for a hike.” He detected a “dovish tilt” in Powell’s efforts to stress the Fed was uncomfortable with inflation running persistently too low.
• Policy makers changed their statement to say that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support “inflation returning to the committee’s symmetric 2% objective.” Previously they had said policy was supporting inflation “near” the goal.
• Powell explained in his press conference that the change was made to send “a clearer signal” that the committee was not comfortable with inflation running persistently below target. “We wanted to underscore our commitment to 2% not being a ceiling,” he said.
• Their preferred gauge of price pressures — the personal consumption expenditures price index — rose 1.5% for the 12 months ending in November. Powell said inflation was expected to move closer to 2% over the next few months thanks to so-called base effects, “as unusually low readings from early 2019 drop out of the calculation.”

Fund Flows & Issuance:  According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were $0.9 billion.  New issuance for the week was $13.2 billion and year to date HY is at $27.4 billion.

(Bloomberg)  High Yield Market Highlights

• S. junk bonds posted a third straight day of losses as issuance neared $32 billion, the most for a January in more than a decade.
• Borrowers are rushing to take advantage of low rates before the window closes
• Markets may see support today as stock futures climb on economic data and investors set aside concerns about a deadly virus from China hampering growth
• Yields rose 8bps to 5.17%, a three week high, as stocks fluctuated and oil dropped to an eight-week low
• Spreads widened 8bps to +340, a six week high
• Energy yields jumped 30bps to 8.56%, the biggest increase in more than five months
• Energy index posted a loss of 0.675%, the biggest loss since October,
• CAA yields were back at 10%, returns were negative for a third day
• Retail funds have reported three straight weeks of inflow, the longest streak in almost three months

(Wall Street Journal)  Glut Pushes Natural Gas Prices Below $2 

• The price of natural gas typically rises this time of year as temperatures plunge and homeowners dial up their thermostats. Instead, the price of the heating and electricity-generating fuel has dropped to multiyear lows.
• On Tuesday, natural-gas futures fell below $2 per million British thermal units to their lowest level in nearly four years, highlighting how a persistent glut has buffeted energy investors and producers. This winter’s mild weather has joined an oversupply of the commodity to push natural-gas prices down to levels not seen since March 2016. On Tuesday, futures fell 5.4% to $1.895 per MMBtu.
• The shale boom, spurred by horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques, has transformed the U.S. energy industry and flooded the market with oil and natural gas in recent years. The decline in prices has hit shares of energy companies, raising calls for them to curtail production. But few analysts see signs of the glut abating soon: The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts dry natural-gas production in the U.S. will rise by 2.9% in 2020.
• The fall in prices has come faster than analysts and traders had predicted. Colder winter temperatures typically drive up prices as homeowners demand more fuel to heat their houses. However, warmer-than-expected weather this season has helped drive prices down, adding to investors’ grim outlook.
• On Tuesday, oil-field services company Halliburton Co. said it swung to a loss in 2019 on a decline in revenue that it blamed on diminished drilling onshore in North America, which in turn was due to low commodity prices.
• “Gas prices in the U.S. are below break-even levels,” Chief Executive Jeffrey Miller told analysts and investors. Mr. Miller said that he expects a 10% reduction in spending among the oil-field services company’s customers in North America, with the bulk of those cuts coming in gas-producing regions. Halliburton has been idling equipment to match customers’ reduced needs, he said.

(Bloomberg)  Junk Bond Volume Nears $30 Billion in Refi Frenzy

• The U.S. junk-bond market is on track for its busiest January in at least a decade with volume poised to exceed $30 billion as companies rush to refinance at cheap rates.
• At least seven issuers are looking to sell debt on Thursday after an already hectic pace. Those deals will potentially take new issue volume to $30.8 billion, the most for any January since 2006, according to data compiled by Bloomberg
• Companies are mostly selling debt to refinance. Some of those issuers are replacing loans with bonds
• Garda World Security, owned by private-equity firm BC Partners, is marketing $400 million 7 year senior secured notes to take out a term loan
• It’s at least the third company to do so this month amid more favorable pricing — in some cases — for bonds
• Another BC Partners portfolio company, Presidio, priced secured bonds at a cheaper rate than loans last week
• Grocer Albertsons also sold $2.35 billion of bonds on Wednesday to refinance loans
• The primary market appears open to the deals in the lowest CAA junk rating tier. Community Health and Altice are in market with bonds that have at least one rating in that range
• Junk-bond spreads widened to a two-week high on Wednesday, and may weaken more as stocks fall and oil prices fall to an almost eight-week low of $55.51 a barrel