CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

(Bloomberg)  High Yield Market Highlights

• The US junk bond market halted the post-election rally and recorded losses for three straight sessions as yields jumped nine basis this week to 7.21%. The market is on track to end a two-week rally, with the week-to-date loss at 0.16%.
• The rally lost further momentum after Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the Federal Reserve is in “ no hurry to lower rates.” The US economic performance has been “remarkably good,” he said, signaling that the central bank had enough room to lower rates at a careful pace.
• This came after data showed a measure of US inflation remained firm in October, highlighting the risks the central bank faces in bringing prices under control
• Inflation data was followed by producer prices on Thursday. The US producer price index rose in October, signaling pressure in Fed’s favored gauge – the core PCE
• The losses in the US junk bond market spanned across ratings. CCC yields climbed 12 basis points to 10% in three sessions this week, driving a loss of 0.02% on Thursday. CCCs are set to close the week flat
• BB yields rose eight basis points 6.15% pushing a loss of 0.03% on Thursday. BBs are set to close the week with losses of 0.19%
• Risk assets took a breather from the broad post-election rally this week, Brad Rogoff and Dominique Toublan wrote on Thursday. With few data points left and limited days for more supply, spreads can still grind tighter through year-end, despite being near 30-year lows, Rogoff and Toublan wrote
• The losses in risk accelerated with Powell’s warnings coming after several Fed officials on Wednesday suggested that there was lack of clarity on the pace of easing and the appropriate level
• “While now is the time to begin dialing back the restrictiveness of monetary policy, it remains to be seen how much further interest rates will decline or where they might eventually settle,” Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said in a speech at an energy conference co-hosted by the Kansas City and Dallas reserve banks
• Uncertainty about the neutral rate has also risen, perhaps because the structural changes in the economy are “relatively recent and will take time to fully assess,” Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said in separate remarks at the same conference
• Junk bond yields and returns also came under pressure this week because US borrowers rushed to the market after a quick and clear election outcome
• Eight borrowers sold more than $4b this week

(Bloomberg)  Powell Says It’s Smart to Go Slowly on Fed Easing If Data Allow

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said officials may slow the pace of interest-rate cuts as they approach the so-called neutral rate — a setting that neither slows nor stimulates growth.
• The economy is doing very well and that is a great thing, Powell said Thursday during a Q&A session following a speech in Dallas.
• “I think in this situation, what it calls for is us to be careful, move carefully, and as we sort of reach the range or get near the plausible range of neutral levels, it may be the case that we slow the pace of what we’re doing just to increase the chances that we get this right,” Powell said.
• Powell said it would be smart to proceed slowly with lowering borrowing costs if the economic data allow.
• US central bankers began lowering borrowing costs in September with an aggressive half-percentage-point cut, and then lowered the policy rate again by a quarter point last week. They’ve signaled a willingness to cut rates further so long as inflation continues to slow. Powell’s remarks appear in line with some of his other colleagues who are advocating a go-slow approach to future rate reductions.

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.